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[acvpp] The Denon Demon?

The time to increase your bet is when you're up. Let's say that you are up $900 after hitting a royal. I might increase to .50. I would then put in a stop amount (like if my winnings tumble to $700), go back to quarters. If my winnings jump to $1100 or more, increase to dollars.

Never increase when losing a lot, unless you just want to get outa there.

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-----Original Message-----
From: Louis Mogol
Sent: Thursday, April 30, 2009 11:26 AM
To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
Cc: vpfree@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [acvpp] The Denon Demon?

-----Original Message-----
From: bandstand54
Sent: Thursday, April 30, 2009 7:19 AM
To: acvpp@yahoogroups.com
Cc: vpfree@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [acvpp] The Denon Demon?

The Job machine I play goes from .25 to 2.00. I have played at the .25 level forever.

Recently I decided to jump from .25 to 1.00 when I was down to speed up the process of possibly recovering my loss and possibly showing a profit. This brilliant idea has turned into a disaster for me. I intend to stick with the .25 no matter what.

Have you or do you move up your denon when you are down..or even when you are up, which seems like the better choice?

Grumpy

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

According to Bell Labs researcher J.L. Kelly, that's correct. The approximate optimal Kelly bet is:

bankroll x advantage/variance

So, if you were betting the optimal Kelly fraction, then doubled your bankroll, the new optimal Kelly fraction would be double. Conversly, if you halved your bankroll, the new optimal Kelly fraction would be halved.

Example, FPDW, your bankroll is $4,221, the approximate optimal Kelly bet is:

$4,221 x .0077/26 = $1.25

Betting more than Kelly increases risk and actually reduces bankroll growth (a bad combination and counterintuitive for many people). Betting less than Kelly reduces risk at the expense of less bankroll growth (a safer approach).

http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Louis Mogol" <LouMogol@...> wrote:

The time to increase your bet is when you're up.