Help! Why Am I Losing at VP?
(Part 2 - Doing Things Right to Fight Those Losing Streaks)
by Jean Scott
Last month, I discussed some of the things VP players might be doing that would explain their losses: choosing negative-expectation games, playing without knowing proper strategy, neglecting to study enough to play accurately, and switching games too often. I promised you then that this month I would be more positive in tone and give you some suggestions to help you win more and/or lose less.
Let me make one thing very clear here. I am not trying to put a guilt trip on everyone who does not passionately embrace and put into practice every frugal idea about which I write. I have been accused of that by some in the past.
However, I think they misunderstand the purpose of my writings. I am NOT trying to make every gambler into a video poker pro. I realize that there are many and widely varied reasons why a person goes into a casino, and most of them are for the main purpose of being entertained. Most people do not want to "work" when they are on vacation.
However, you really don't need articles about how to waste money on things that don't give you good value. Most people can do that quite easily on their own! My purpose is to give so many money-saving and value-increasing ideas you can use in a casino that, hopefully, everyone can find at least a few that fit their goals and will be helpful. If you are really serious about becoming a smart gambler, then you may want to use many of them. It is your choice. I am happy if people use only one hint and it saves them money or makes their casino vacation a better one.
Here are some of the things Brad and I have done during our 11 years of playing video poker that have contributed to our losing less and winning more. I am not saying these are "requirements," but I am saying that the more of these techniques that you use the more likely and much faster you will become long-term winners, as we are today. (I have rounded off numbers to keep it as simple as possible.)
1. Know the computer-derived percentage returns (also called theoretical returns) of the common VP schedules. Just deciding to play "full-pay" video poker is not enough. Jacks or Better with a 9/6 paytable is called full-pay, but remember it only returns 99.5% for perfect play. "Full-pay" does not mean over 100%. Deuces Wild has a return of 100.7%; Double Bonus, 100.1%. They are both full-pay AND over 100%.
2. Look for slot club benefits and promotions that will add to the EV (expected value) of the games themselves. A frequent slot club benefit is bonus cashback points, double, triple, and sometimes higher. Sometimes you will get cash bonuses for designated hands, i.e., quads in the "hot" card of the day. [Now I would also emphasize bounce-back cash]
3. Choose ONLY playing opportunities where the total return is 100% or higher. Total return is the sum of the machine return plus any cash benefits. For example, if you play deuces wild at a casino with cashback of .25%, like the Suncoast in Vegas, your total return would be 100.7 + .25 = 100.95%. If you played 9/6 Jacks or Better at the Suncoast on double-points day, your total return would be right at 100% ( 95.5% + .5%). It is IMPOSSIBLE to win in the long term if you play at less than 100%. I'm sorry to have to break his news to you - but, although you can possibly be winners in the short run, you can NEVER beat the math in the long term. There is no betting system that will turn a negative game into a positive one.
4. Decide whether you want to count comps in the total return of your play. Brad and I did count comps when we first started, and many casual recreational gamblers may want to always do this. And if you were going to take money out of your pocket in the same amount for the rooms, food, shows, and other non-cash perks you get comped, it is quite correct to count them in your total return. I know many gamblers who stay in the big Vegas Strip resorts where the best game with the cashback still doesn't quite come to 100%. But with all the non-cash perks and comps, they are playing well over 100%.
However, you must be careful in your calculations here. We didn't count comps in our total return for very long, because we soon were getting so many comps that we were increasing the number of our casino vacations and the luxury of our casino lifestyle to a level that we could never have afforded on our own budget. So we started counting comps as "gravy," and chose playing opportunities that were over 100% in CASH return. If you want to count comps, figure the average amount you will lose over the long term by playing at a percentage below 100% in actual cash return. If you can't afford that loss, you can't "afford" all those luxury freebies.
5. Have an adequate bankroll. This brings up one ugly word in the video poker world-"volatility." Probably the closest mathematical term to describe volatility is the term "variance." How much can your winning and losing sessions vary from the "average" expected return? I like my non-mathematical real-life description - I call it "the roller coaster effect." Since so much of the return of any video poker game comes from the top jackpot hands, an infrequent occurrence, you must have enough money to "survive" between the jackpots.
In the sequel to The Frugal Gambler, which I'm currently finishing (it's due out in the fall), I'll cover this subject in depth, with charts by math experts who determine by computer calculations the necessary bankrolls for various games at different levels of certainty. For now, though, I can generalize by saying that you can have a smaller bankroll if you can handle a 75% "risk of ruin (ROR)," the mathematical term for "going broke" before reaching the long term. For us conservative (read that - scared) sorts who want to be surer, the bankroll figures will surprise, even shock.
I'll give you one mind-numbing example, for a "good" game. To play quarter Deuces Wild-and you have to play perfectly-with no added cash benefits, you must have $8,800 to have only a 1% ROR.
Are you discouraged already? Jump to number 6 fast!
6. Always choose the BEST playing opportunities. That means picking games that, with the extra cash benefits, give the highest possible total return. All things being equal, the bigger the edge you have, the smaller the bankroll you'll need. Let's go back to quarter Deuces Wild. If you play it at a casino with .2% cashback, then your bankroll requirement drops from $8,800 to $6,800. Play it at the Gold Coast in Las Vegas on double-points day or at another casino where perhaps you can piggyback a good promotion onto good cashback, and if your added value is .5%, you only need $5,000. Choosing playing opportunities that have a lower bankroll requirement means that you'll be more likely to get to the winning long-term faster.
7. Strive for accuracy, but take into consideration human limitations. No one plays video poker perfectly 100% of the time. A casino is full of distractions, our bodies grow weary, our minds become forgetful, and our eyes must endure the punishing glare of a computer screen. But that doesn't make winning video poker impossible. It just means that we must ever be vigilant: studying and practicing at home, cutting our session times and taking frequent breaks in the casino.
And remember, the above bankroll numbers are for PERFECT play. Whenever I figure the total return of any possible play, I subtract at least .1% for "human frailties," .2% if it's a game with a tough strategy such as Double Bonus. Being realistic is a necessary attribute for being a successful video poker player. You can try to fool yourself, but the end results always tell the truth.
8. Find ways to decrease the volatility of video poker and/or get to the long term quicker. One idea is to find a gambling buddy. Two people playing out of the same "pot" don't need a bigger bankroll than one person; and, because they're getting in twice as many hands, the roller coaster ride will be a little less breathtaking.
Another idea is to play multi-line machines. However, consider carefully before you choose this technique. For one thing, the volatility in the short term will increase dramatically because your results for all lines are still dependent on the ONE dealt starting hand. You don't need to multiply the single-line bankroll requirements by the number of lines to determine how much to increase your bankroll; math calculations say that you won't need nearly that much. But I find I'm most comfortable with a bit more than the math would indicate, because the increased volatility short-term can take you much deeper into your bankroll in any one session than on a single-line machines. I like twice the bankroll for Triple Play, three times for Five Play, and five times for Ten Play.
9. Supplement your video poker bankroll with other gambling activities that give you a big edge. Couponing has been our favorite supplement through the years, especially when we were quarter players. Because you can easily find coupons that give you an edge of 10%, 20%, and even higher edge, the volatility is extremely low and the long-term profits certain.
Now that we play dollars we don't coupon as much, but we still find many couponing opportunities that have a higher hourly expected value than most dollar video poker plays. And sometimes we just use couponing as a "rest" from the intensity at the machines.
Another activity that can pump up your video poker bankroll is "wonging" slots. Those who study how to take advantage of the new bonusing machines, playing only when someone has left a fat bonus, will reap nice monetary rewards. No longer can we generalize and say that all slot play is negative expectation. [Not too much opportunity for this anymore.]
10. Last here, but perhaps first in importance, is this advice: Have patience. The long term can be just as the term says-loooong. You can be doing everything right - but you will still have losing streaks. However, I sometimes, joking, say to people who are complaining about losing, "Play faster - you will get to the long term quicker!"
Oh, one more thing. I promised you last month that I'd tell you how 2000 ended for us. If you remember, we had happily experienced 10 straight winning video poker years before the new century arrived. But then we fell into a horrific losing streak that lasted for more than 11 months, and we were preparing ourselves for a big red final figure. However, on December 26, we hit our biggest royal of the year, and the next few days we went to casinos all over town collecting hundreds of dollars of cashback. When we closed the books on December 31, yes, we did have a red figure-but a tiny $373. [Actually this was a "technical" loss since we had delayed picking up some cashback because of a TV shoot in January.]
However, we thought about the winning figures of the past 10 years, some of them very substantial. And we thought about the thousands of dollars of comps we had enjoyed in 2000, but weren't included in our cash total. We decided it wasn't a bad year after all.
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Want to read more by Jean Scott? Check out her weekly column, "Frugal Fridays," on the LVA website at www.lasvegasadvisor.com
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Jean $�ott - http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
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