A year of +EV on non-fullpay

[C11]

There's been a lot of discussion about why an advantage player would play machines that pay less than 100%. Here's one example of a year of just that.

During 2013, I did a fair amount of consulting in San Diego. Many of my room nights were spent at La Quintas (I do not have expensive tastes, at least in hotels). On average those nights cost me $80-100. So on several occasions I chose to stay in a comped room at Harrah's Rincon instead. These visits were my only Caesars play all year.

My total play at Rincon:
$252,580 coin in (which yielded 35,508 tier score; two early days were $25k coin in each to get Diamond in January, only two other days topped $5k coinin)

My choice of games:
Roughly 80% of my coinin was on 8/5 BP on DreamCard (99.27% with a RF cycle under 8500 hands)
The remaining 20% was nearly all on DSTP 10-play 8/5 BP which I chose to play at 5 coin rather than 7. Yes, I left EV on the table but the variance of DSTP was too much for me. All of it was at 25c denomination.

My total benefits received:
20 free nights valued at $75 per night (yes Rincon is a 4-diamond hotel but it's a longer drive from town so for me it's worth about $75)

32 free buffets valued at $15 each (they charge more than this, but $15 is the value I place on them) - the early part of the year featured a promotion of a free buffet any day you got 50 tier credits. Later in the year they switch to just giving 1-2 free buffets per week

Comps of $620. There were many 5x days during the year but they were usually the wrong day of the week for my visits. I steered heavier play to days with multipliers but averaged barely over 2x for the year

Free play totaling $4,370. This could have been a lot more had I crushed it the last two months I was getting strong offers but I wasn't in town much. Early in the year my offers amounted to $25 a week. Then in July, my only playing session was a $7k coinin loss of $1000. When I got my next round of mailers it included over $1700 in free play spread over all 30 days of the month (some on individual days, some on windows of 3-4 days). I collected over $1100 of that play and had similar mailers the following month, which I collected $1050. After a couple royals those months, my mailers went back to roughly $300 per month spread over 20-25 specific days. Adjusted for BP=$4333

Total value of benefits: $6933

Total EV from $252,580 coin in on 8/5 BP: Cash loss of $2097.

Net EV for my year: 101.91%

I don't pretend that you would value the rooms and buffets and whatnot the same way I do. But that's how the math worked out for me. And to be honest, I left considerable EV on the table once I could predict the mailers.

Strictly as an aside, my expected loss of $2097 actually wound up a win of $1833 since I saw eight royals on those machines. So my results were substantially better. But that part was luck.

[Bill_Schaub]

Thanks for describing your experience. I’ve often felt that many players don’t recognize the ways in which close to positive play can make sense. It all depends on what you are looking to get out of it and at what level you can afford to play.

I’ve found it worthwhile to play enough at Caesars casinos to get to Seven Stars. I don’t use all the benefits but the annual trip and the ability to convert comp dollars to freeplay at 80% value, along with guaranteed free rooms have been worth it to me. Some of the Caesars locations around the country still have full play Jacks or Better or higher return machines. At my local Caesars casinos in Atlantic City, most 99%+ machines have recently gone to $20 or higher to earn a point which makes it more difficult, but the frequent 10X points days help some.

I’ve driven from the East Coast to Las Vegas a few times and have had to pay for hotel rooms only 4 of 18 nights, thanks to using Caesars properties along the way. Usually the local host has offered a food comp as well. There have been downgrades recently, but on prior trips Kansas City and Cherokee were the only locations I stopped at that did not have 99.5%+ return games at the dollar level. At those I played either blackjack or minimally. Other than the annual trip, I don’t stay or play at Caesars properties in Las Vegas.

I don’t have the Caesars results broken out separately from my other play but I’m sure it has been very close to break even over the last several years that I have been 7*.

In Las Vegas, I usually stay at the Boyd casinos, usually Sam’s Town or Main Street Station. Playing 99%+ games with .3% cashback as Emerald, combined with some free play offers, multiple points days and scratch cards at Main Street have made these plays very close to 100% EV. With Gold Card RFB benefits, this has been worth it to me, and results have been very close to expectation over the years.