I read the first two posts in this thread + the article hyperlinked in the
first post. What follows is an email that I sent by BCC copies to several
VP acquaintances and the friends who accompanied me on last fall's drive
along the Oregon coast. Please comment if you have knowledge, whether
based on personal experience or hearsay. Thanks.
The GMan
I'm not surprised to learn that a state lottery misleads players.
(1) My first follow up question would be whether the "wrong" advice
actually leads the player to the least-bad predetermined result. My
previous understanding is/was that state-sanctioned VP in Oregon pays an
overall (bad) return that is predetermined as soon as the machine deals the
initial hand. E.g., in the hand described by the article, the player may
have been predestined to end up with two pair, and that result required
either ignoring his straight draw or drawing one of the bizarre wild cards
that I encountered at a Washington tribal casino. [Discard dealt quads and,
one way or another, I would redraw quads.]
(2) My second follow up question would be whether VP at Oregon *tribal *casinos
is gaffed in the same way as Oregon Lottery machines.
When I and two friends drove the gorgeous Oregon coast last fall, I was
intrigued by the possibility of getting room and board for (math EV) free
at a tribal casino on or near the coast. I still am intrigued, but only if
tribal casino machines are governed by RNGs. The linked article raises a
bright caution flag.
FWIW, conventional wisdom in the VP community says that machines
manufactured by any company licensed in Nevada must deal cards randomly.
Williams Gaming (WMS) is the second-most prominent of those companies. But
I learned recently (when inquiring about a game called "Dream Card" that is
manufactured by the most-prominent Nevada-license VP machine manufacturer)
that writing software that always recommends the best play for any initial
hand in every game that a multi-game machine offers is a difficult task
from which VP machine manufacturers obtained an exemption in early
iterations of Dream Card. That MAY explain the weird experience of the
article's protagonist in Oregon. Or, maybe the Oregon Lottery actually has
been knowingly perpetrated a fraud to increase its profits.
Comments welcomed.
The GMan
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