Brian wrote:
Thanks, Dan!
What you're saying is, the simplified formula you printed in VPT several years back was way off! And here I've been using it for at least five years!
Luckily, I haven't gone broke!
You're welcome. My first article on the Sorokin formula was in the March/April 1999 issue. I would consider that "several years back," but you must have missed that one. Perhaps you're referring to my first risk of ruin article in the March/April 1994 issue. That was long before Sorokin figured out how to calculate RoR on high variance games such as video poker. The formula I used in 1999 was the best I could find in statistics books, and what I didn't know at the time was that it was really only suitable for games with low variance such as blackjack.
Glad you didn't go broke. Chris Myers' infinite bankroll theory explains the situation for most gamblers. They have a small amount of money available for gambling (I won't even call it a gambling "bankroll"), and if that is lost they just continue on their regular job until they can set aside enough to gamble some more. Thus, they never go broke. As we learn more about the games, how to recognize a positive situation, and become more skilled, we become more concerned about a separate gambling bankroll and RoR.
Is perhaps AA an exception? I've never played it. I have also never played
FPKBJW. My friend uses the Sorokin formula to calculate ROR, and his figures have never been very far off from the approximated figure gleaned from the "short cut" you printed in VPT. Perhaps it works for "most" games, and I've been
fortunate to not play any of the exceptions?
No, AA is not an exception. That's why I mentioned Joker Wild, which is an even more extreme example. The exception is the size of the bankroll (see below). Which VPT article are you referring to?
My apologies to PartTimeVP. It seems you were correct! Live and learn!
With a relatively small bankroll (say 1,000 unit bets instead of 10,000) the RoR for these games ranges only from 52% to 58%, and using the variance as an approximate guide for RoR may be reasonable. Most of us would prefer not to have that big a RoR, however, so we try to have a large enough bankroll to cut our RoR to less than 5% (at least 5,000 betting units on these games), and with a large bankroll the variance is no longer a good indicator or RoR.
Dan
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Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur