vpFREE2 Forums

A silly, simple question that shows my ignorance

#1

From: "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@verizon.net>
From a practical vantage point, vp variance gives us a relative
measure of the degree to which the game return is dependent upon
infrequent hands with higher payoffs (e.g. RF or q-A in DB). The
higher the variance, the greater the risk that play deficient in these
hands will yield a significant loss and, conversely, the greater the
likelihood that a good run of such hands will advanced the credit
meter wildly.

Here's a particular case where I'm trying to get a handle on "variance" and
"volatility."

I'm thinking of establishing myself at El Dorado in Reno. There are several
games that I like there: the quarter multi-strike bonus poker deluxe,
50-cent or dollar Double Bonus, Loose Deuces, & Not So Ugly Deuces, and
Dollar FPJB progressive. I understand that DB has the best long-term return,
but as a visitor who gambles only for a weekend every month or two, I'm
aware of the risk that I'll never reach the long-term in my lifetime, so to
speak.

So... if I had to choose between these games, being concerned about EV, but
also wanting to put through lots of $s (for the sake of comps & invites &
such), & wanting to have a very good chance that I can play at a good speed
for say 6-8 hours without losing more than $2K, what's my "best" bet? And I
love the quarter multi-strike, & it seems like that'd have less volatility
than a dollar game, but I'm just guessing.

Off the top of my head, I'm guessing that Loose Deuces gives the biggest
risk of sharp losses over such a period, followed by Double Bonus, NSUD, &
JOB. But I'm wondering what someone who really knows would say. If I give up
EV by switching from DB to NSUD, with the idea that I'm more protected
against catastrophic losses, I dunno, maybe I've got it completely wrong?

Stuart (RandomStu)

#2

Stuart Resnick wrote

I'm thinking of establishing myself at El Dorado in Reno. There are
several games that I like there: the quarter multi-strike bonus
poker deluxe, 50-cent or dollar Double Bonus, Loose Deuces, & Not So
Ugly Deuces, and Dollar FPJB progressive. I understand that DB has
the best long-term return, but as a visitor who gambles only for a
weekend every month or two, I'm aware of the risk that I'll never
reach the long-term in my lifetime, so to speak.

So... if I had to choose between these games, being concerned about
EV, but also wanting to put through lots of $s (for the sake of
comps & invites & such), & wanting to have a very good chance that I
can play at a good speed for say 6-8 hours without losing more than
$2K, what's my "best" bet? And I love the quarter multi-strike, & it
seems like that'd have less volatility than a dollar game, but I'm
just guessing.

Off the top of my head, I'm guessing that Loose Deuces gives the
biggest risk of sharp losses over such a period, followed by Double
Bonus, NSUD, & JOB. But I'm wondering what someone who really knows
would say. If I give up EV by switching from DB to NSUD, with the
idea that I'm more protected against catastrophic losses, I dunno,
maybe I've got it completely wrong?

A few miscellaneous comments:

LD is strictly out if you have any semblence of sanity given that DB
is available.

There are obviously several variables at play here but, if you're not
comfortable that you have the bankroll for $1 DB, I'd opt for $.50 DB.
(Unless you tell me that the El Dorado comp options are so
spectacular that playing $1's is a must.)

Never discount the "long term" of a play. Keep in mind that, when it
comes to long term expectations, you can't reasonably segregate out
each play individually for it's expected impact on your bankroll.
It's all one long haul statistically and play on multiple games counts
as one single "long term" (although in mixing games you extend the
timeframe of that "long term" moderately). Don't discount the math of
a play because it's not a frequent home for you.

Without replaying in full my prior discussion of MultiStrike variance,
4-Level $.25 MS play has a variance that is about (IIRC) 20% higher
than that of $1 single line play of the same game.

In your shoes, I'd cut back to $.50 DB before I'd consider $1 NSUD as
an alternative; and I don't consider $.25 MS BPD to be a strong
candidate at all.

- Harry