A Novice Question From A Paranoid Mind

[Barry_Glazer]

3b. Re: A Novice Question From A Paranoid Mind
Date: Sun Jan 11, 2009 7:36 am ((PST))

I think that the chances of casino machine rigging happening
are very substantially lower than that of some players having
a "statistically poor year". I have a strong belief that
anyone who has played VP for several years has experienced
the awful dry spells that are completely counter to what the
normal EV of a good VP game might be.

While I agree 100%, the interesting thing about games of "chance" is that there is no way to know, on your own, whether you are simply sitting on the wrong end of a bell-shaped curve, or sitting on a bell-shaped curve of which the center has been shifted by the casino, or sitting on a bell-shaped curve of which the center has been shifted by errors you are unwittingly making (those who say they play with 100% accuracy, I always wonder, how do you know? 100% on your home computer does not necessarily translate to 100% in a casino with sticky buttons, distractions, etc. etc.).

An outside observer could check your play for errors (or a program, if there was a way to apply one to your playing history in a casino somehow). The difference between a bad year and a gaffed machine is pretty much unable to be determined by a single player, I would think.

Again, I agree a bad year is more likely than a rigged machine, but I was just talking in terms of "nothing's impossible" and that there IS greed and stupidity out there, with little consideration for the consequences.

--BG

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[jackessiebabe]

of "chance" is that there is no way to know, on your own,
whether you are simply sitting on the wrong end of a
bell-shaped curve, or sitting on a bell-shaped curve of
which the center has been shifted by the casino, or sitting
on a bell-shaped curve of which the center has been shifted
by errors you are unwittingly making (those who say they
play with 100% accuracy, I always wonder, how do you know?
100% on your home computer does not necessarily translate
to 100% in a casino with sticky buttons, distractions, etc.
etc.).

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, b.glazer@... wrote:

While I agree 100%, the interesting thing about games

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I agree that all the possibilities which you mention above are
indeed "possible". But my good sense tells me that the least
likely scenario is the one that involves delibrate casino
rigging.

I too am most suspicious of claims of playing with 100% accuracy.
I often get to 100%, or within a decimal point of 100%, on my
laptop, after YEARS of practice and MILLIONS of hands played,
yet I know that I don't play that well in a casino. As you say,
too many distractions, annoyances, heart thumping excitement
when drawing to RF4 etc. This is yet another reason that I believe
that "normal EV statistics" are frequently skewed.

Again, I agree a bad year is more likely than a rigged machine,

but I was just talking in terms of "nothing's impossible" and that
there IS greed and stupidity out there, with little consideration
for the consequences.
--BG

We are basically on the same page. I can't quarrel with your
statement that "nothing is impossible". I just cannot believe
that in present day Nevada casinos, that gaffing or rigging VP
machines, is ever a factor.

~Babe~