"rock" wrote"
I don't know if any viable conclusion can be drawn from all this,
except that it seems like in all but the very long term, luck, and
NOT
the inherent EV of the games you play, determines whether you wind up
a winner. After all, a 100.7% return game just means that after
50,000
hands, 52% of the players will be ahead and 48% behind; at JOB the
results may be reversed. (I don't know the actual math here; I'm just
trying to illustrate the point.)
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I am a total believer in math and appreciate very much all that
those much wiser than me share in here.... but I have come to accept
you cannot put a statistical number on luck. And it is VERY REAL.
Case in point: In my last 10 hours of play ($1 NSUD), I am down $5k.
I won't share the YTD total (it would pain me to type it). My
parents (God love 'em), play only 9/5 and 9/6 DDB without correct
strategy (they think it's all a bunch 'o hooey) and are up over $20k
so far this year. They also think Harrah's is great and play there
almost exclusively. They are 1/2 way to the new 7-star card in just
5 months' time and Harrah's sends them a whopping 4x$15 bounceback
monthly. I am thrilled for them... but MAN it can be painful!
I know in the "end" all of my reading/studying/practice "should" put
me ahead of them... but as they say, "there is no time like the
present."
Correna Correna