A New Low

[Steve_Norden]

I will again mention Bayes theorem (to the newcomers to this post). Assuming your a priori guess as to the probability of being cheated is only 1/1000. You would only arrive at an 0 for 50 1/29000 honestly. Your post event guess as the chance that the game was honest is (1/29000)/(1/1000)=1/29. Even if your a priori guess was your chance of being cheated was only 1/10000 you still conclude that your post priori chance that you were cheated was about 2/3. Also it would not surprise me: Never overestimate the intelligence of a casino.

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[Ed_Miller]

“I will again mention Bayes theorem (to the newcomers to this post)…”

You’re ignoring the likely thousands of other hands played, which are pretty important as far as this sort of approach to the question is concerned.

Ed

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On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 10:19 AM, Steve Norden Nordo…@…com [vpFREE] <vpF…@…com> wrote:

I will again mention Bayes theorem (to the newcomers to this post). Assuming your a priori guess as to the probability of being cheated is only 1/1000. You would only arrive at an 0 for 50 1/29000 honestly. Your post event guess as the chance that the game was honest is (1/29000)/(1/1000)=1/29. Even if your a priori guess was your chance of being cheated was only 1/10000 you still conclude that your post priori chance that you were cheated was about 2/3. Also it would not surprise me: Never overestimate the intelligence of a casino.

Sent from my iPhone