vpFREE2 Forums

A Keno Math Problem

#1

Come on, this is simple 9th grade math. Assuming independence of games the chance of hitting exactly 3 out of 4 is 1/23.12251462 - therefore the probability of not getting exactly 3 out of 4 is 0.95675210865 and the chance of going 60 consecutive games without exactly 3 out of 4 is (0.95675210865)**60 = 0.070463738969 or about 1/14.19169653. Two questions - do you get to leach on previous misses? In other words if the machine has gone 58 games without 3 out of 4 you are guaranteed 3 out of 4 by your 3rd try? Can you make small bets until you don't hit for 60 consecutive games and then bet the max on the next game when you will be awarded 3 out of 4?

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#2

The probability of 60 games without a hit is "simple math"

The frequency of a 60 game drought over successive 60 game trials is also "simple math"

The frequency of a 60 game drought over successive individual game trials is, I believe, strikingly more complex math. I'd welcome an argument to convince me otherwise.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <Nordo123@...> wrote :

Come on, this is simple 9th grade math. Assuming independence of games the chance of hitting exactly 3 out of 4 is 1/23.12251462 - therefore the probability of not getting exactly 3 out of 4 is 0.95675210865 and the chance of going 60 consecutive games without exactly 3 out of 4 is (0.95675210865)**60 = 0.070463738969 or about 1/14.19169653.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

Harry wrote:

The probability of 60 games without a hit is "simple math"

The frequency of a 60 game drought over successive 60 game trials is also "simple math"

The frequency of a 60 game drought over successive individual game trials is, I believe, strikingly more complex math. I'd welcome an argument to convince me otherwise.

Assuming the 60 trials resets after each win, there shouldn't be any
difference between any of these. Over 60 trials, without a guarantee,
there will be 2.59 hits. The guarantee adds 0.07 hits, so that the
overall chance is 2.66 out of 60.

#4

Thanks, 007. So the frequency would be 22.556. There are many more cogs in the wheel for this game. I dont want to name the game to keep my competitors at bay. I'm going to make some good money on this game in the future. Its brand new right now and not getting much action from the ploppies. But the bsnking/progressive features will build over time.

Its the most complicated keno game I've ever had to analyze.

#5

This is some of the stuff a hardcore AP will put himself through to make a buck. I'll try to describe this game using the 7-spot as an example with everything at reset.

In the top left corner is a box with three features in it:

Free Games.....5
Multiplier...........2
Extra Draws......3

There is a progressive meter on the top right that starts with 20 bets in it.

When you are playing your 7 spot the machine makes 4 picks that are not part of your numbers. When that 4 spot hits, one of 4 things is going to happen:

If there is a star next to Free Games, Multiplier, and Extra Draws you are award 5 free games with a 2X multiplier, and 3 extra draws.

If there is only a star next to Free Games and Extra Draws then you are awarded 5 free games with 3 extra draws.

If there is only a star next to Free Games and Multiplier then you are awarded 5 free games with a 2X multiplier.

If the are no stars present then you are awarded the progressive meter that starts at 20 bets.

There is a lot more to come. Next post.

If there are no stars next to

#6

So I described what happens when you hit all four machine picks. Here's the payscale for the 7 spot

3/7.......1
4/7.......4
5/7.......9
6/7.....40
7/7...366

It comes in at 50%.

Now, when you hit 3 of the 4 machine picks there are 8 different events that, according to the rules screen, are equally likely to happen. A color coded tab will jump up and award certain something.

Red Tab: You are awarded either 2X or 3X pay with 2 extra draws until the next 3/4 hits.
This feature is not capped at 60 games. I had to do an empirical here. The 2X and 3X multipliers are not equally likely to occur. Through 186 catches I caught the 2X 152 times and only caught the 3X 34 times.

Green Tab: You are awarded from 5 to 15 bets. I did an empirical on it. Its weighted random and averages 7.5 bets. Once you are awarded the green tab if you dont hit 3/4 in 60 games you are automatically awarded another tab.

Yellow Tab: You are awarded either a 2X, 3X,4X or 5X multiplier until the next 3/4 hits. I have an empirical going. Through 68 catches I caught the 2X 51 times, 3X 8 times, 4X 5 times, and the 5X 4 times. You are not capped at 60 games when in yellow.

Aqua Tab: You are awarded either 3,4, 5, 6, or 8 extra draws until the next 3/4 hits. This is not purely random either. Through 125 catches I caught the 3 a total of 33 times, the 4 a total of 65 times, 5 a total of 11 times, the 6 a total of 12 times and 8 just 4 times. You are not capped at 60 games while in aqua.

There are still 4 more tabs. I'll get to them in the next post.

#7

Combining the previous 4 tabs where you are awarded multipliers, extra draws and bets, with the payscale I have moved the payback up to 78%. The next four tabs are where the money comes in. I earlier described the box on the upper left with the 5 free games, 2X multiplier, and 3 extra draws. These are actually meters. Here are the final 4 tabs.

Blue Tab: Catching this tab increases thr Free Games meter by 1 game. So if it is sitting on 5 it will move to 6. If it is sitting on 6 it will move to 7, etc. It caps at 60 free games. If you dont catch a 3/4 in the next 60 games you are automatically awarded a new tab.

Orange Tab: Increases the Multiplier meter by 1. If its on 2X it moves to 3X. If its on 3X it moves to 4X. It caps at 20X. No 3/4 in 60 games and you are awarded a new tab.

Purple Tab: Increases the Extra Draws meter by 1. If its sitting on 3 it moves to 4. If its sitting on 4 it moves to 5. Caps at 40 extra draws.

Pink Tab: Increases the progressive meter by 4 bets. Not catching a 3/4 in 60 games awards you a new tab.

So to me the trick to this game is finding it where the ploppies have built up the meters and walked off. Like finding it with 10 free games, a 10X multiplier, and 10 extra draws.
I'll get to this in later posts.

#8

I forgot to answer saysitsme's questions. Yes you will always find the countdown meter with a certain amount of games already played. I'm going to have to start paying attention to this. It may behoove me to play it if I catch it close to 60 to see if I catch a red, yellow or aqua tab.

Re: Dropping the bet level down. That wont work. Every bet level has its own meters. When i sit down to check a machine I have to put it on the 2 spot and nickel denom. I have to go through every bet level, 5 cents, 10 cents, 15 cents, etc. All the way up to $2, checking the meters. Then I have to go to quater denom and do the same thing up to the $2 bet level. So there is a total of 48 shots I have to find a play. Then I have to move up to the 3 spot and do the same thing. Then the 4 spot, etc., all the way up to the 10 spit. So I have a total of 432 shots to find a play on an individual machine.