If anyone would like to take a free look at Dunbar's Risk Analyzer
for Video Poker, v1.5, I now have a demo version available. The demo
version has all the capabilities of the full version, except that it
has just 2 pre-loaded games (JOB and FPDW), and it allows just 2
additional "Custom" games to be saved. The full version of DRA-VP
has 24 pre-loaded games and room for 50 Custom games.
If you would like to try it, I will send it to you as an email
attachment. The size of the attachment is less than 1 megabyte. You
should be able to open the attachment if you have Excel or an Excel-
reader on your computer. However, you will need Excel 2000 or later
to actually run the program.
Here is an example of the type of information you can get from
Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker:
Say you find a 25c FPDW game, and you intend to play it for 20
hours. You have timed yourself, and you can very comfortably play
300 hands/hr.
If you start with $400, DRA-VP tells you that
1. You have a 23% chance of going broke before 20 hours are up.
2. You have a 27% chance of doubling your bankroll AT SOME POINT
during the 20 hours. However, if you continue to play after doubling
your bankroll, you have just an 18% chance of being $400 or more
ahead at the end of play.
3. The chance that you play less than 16 hours before going broke is
16%.
4. If you lower your sights and resolve to quit as soon as you are
$200 ahead, then your chance of reaching that goal rises to 46%
5. For the 20-hour trip, there is a 45% chance of ending up ahead
and a 55% chance of ending up behind.
I thought the last 2 were interesting. The chance of being $200
ahead at some point is greater than the chance that you will be ahead
AT ALL at the end of 20 hours. No wonder people advise, "Quit while
you're ahead!".
If you want to try the demo, let me know by posting here or by direct
email.
--Dunbar