vpFREE2 Forums

A faint ray of hope

#1

I don't call $ and 2$ single line JOB at Bellagio a great play. Single line
$ and above is boring compared to 100P nickels and requires a much bigger
bankroll.

Just as we players are becoming enamored w/ multiline VP, the casinos are
removing it as it allows us to run through large sums at lower variance. A host
at Bellagio told me last week that they were getting killed giving comps to
people playing multiline JOB at low risk but high comp value. Hence the new
Bel.

It is getting to the point where we can find better plays outside of Vegas
and save the airfare/taxi/rental car/airport parking.

The fact is there is a lot less for us mid-rollers to play. The Barbary
Coast has .25 3P/5P NSUD but what comps do they have to offer? Zilch.

And now the Hilton is making adjustments. What next?

TX

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

It is getting to the point where we can find better plays outside

of Vegas

and save the airfare/taxi/rental car/airport parking.

The fact is there is a lot less for us mid-rollers to play. The

Barbary

Coast has .25 3P/5P NSUD but what comps do they have to offer?

Zilch.

And now the Hilton is making adjustments. What next?

I agree that the current direction is downward, as I stated in my
recent trip report, but I have to disagree that the BC offers "zilch"
in comps.

They offer 2 very fine restaurants in Drai's and Michael's. Yes,
they're overpriced, but the food is wonderful. Their final food
outlet, the Victorian Room, is an above average coffee shop.

Add in the recent Visa debit card promotion, which added 20% to comp
point value, and the Barbary was one of the best plays on the Strip
for low and mid rollers.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, TXSunbeam@a... wrote:

#3

Thanks for the feedback!

TXSunbeam@aol.com wrote:

I don't call $ and 2$ single line JOB at Bellagio a great play.

Agreed, but it's slim pickings on the Strip. The B ain't VP paradise, but it's way better than Flamingo, Bally's, Imperial Palace, Harrah's, Mirage, Treasure Island, Luxor, XC, MB, MGM, MC, Aladdin,...well, you get the picture.

It is getting to the point where we can find better plays outside of Vegas and save the airfare/taxi/rental car/airport parking.

Agreed. To clarify, the opening line of the article reads (as it did last year): "The overall quality of Vegas video poker has declined significantly over the last few years. Once the undisputed Mecca of video poker enthusiasts, players are now generally better off visiting Reno, Laughlin, or even Biloxi."
I was just pleasantly surprised not to have to report massive downgrades made THIS year.

The fact is there is a lot less for us mid-rollers to play. The Barbary Coast has .25 3P/5P NSUD but what comps do they have to offer? Zilch.

I had thought that BC was pretty generous with comps. Is that no longer true?

#4

>
> The fact is there is a lot less for us mid-rollers to play. The

Barbary

> Coast has .25 3P/5P NSUD but what comps do they have to offer?

Zilch.

I had thought that BC was pretty generous with comps. Is that no

longer

true?

I think that's a reference to QUALITY of comps ...

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, John Kelly <jwkelly@f...> wrote:

#5

Can someone explain the math behind the 2/4/6 numbers and how they were arrived at? They dont seem intuitive to me at all. I would expect all paying hands on Level 1 to be worth far more, since not getting a paying hand causes you to miss out on the next 3 levels!

John

···

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#6

I'll assume 9/6 JoB.

The average expectation at the last level is to win approximately 40
coins (5*8), assuming that you manage to get there. So, when you're at
the 3rd level, the expected value of any winning hand increases by 40
coins.

Since the immediate value of a high pair is 20 coins at that level,
the added value of the last level is approximately twice as much as a
high pair. Since a high pair is represented as "1" in standard
strategy, 40 coins average for each winning hand are worth an extra
"2".

Now, if you look at the strategy for level 3 (the one you get by
adding 2 to every win line and taking into account the free rides),
you'll find that the return is about 200%, i.e. twice as much as the
bet on that line, i.e. 40 coins. When at the 2rd level, the expected
value of any winning hand increases by 40 coins.

Since the immediate value of a high pair is 10 coins at that level,
the value of 40 coins is approximately 4 times as much as that of a
high pair.

Overall, that makes the return for level 2 around 300%, i.e. 30 coins,
which is 6 times as much as the value of a high pair at level 1.

A bit confused about the value of the bet at each line? It looks like
you're betting 5 coins on each line, but in reality the 5 coins you
bet on line 2 are counted as 10 coins that you play half the time, the
5 coins you bet on line 3 are counted as 20 coins that you play a
quarter of the time, and the 5 coins you bet on line 4 are counted as
40 coins that you play one-eighth of the time.

Yes, all those values are somewhat approximate, but are typically
within a percent.

JBQ

···

On 8/10/05, John <john_oc_ca@yahoo.com> wrote:

Can someone explain the math behind the 2/4/6 numbers and how they were arrived at? They dont seem intuitive to me at all. I would expect all paying hands on Level 1 to be worth far more, since not getting a paying hand causes you to miss out on the next 3 levels!

John

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#7

John wrote:

Can someone explain the math behind the 2/4/6 numbers and how they
were arrived at? They dont seem intuitive to me at all. I would
expect all paying hands on Level 1 to be worth far more, since not
getting a paying hand causes you to miss out on the next 3 levels!

I'll offer up a reply with a modestly different perspective from that
of JBQ -- but his reply is accruate.

Jumping up to Level 3, the question is how to value the potential of
advancement to, and a win on, Level 4.

For simplicity's sake, it's assumed that the ER of the base game is
100%. So, on a wager of 1 betting unit, the expected payback is 1
betting unit.

Any time a win is scored on Level 3, you'll advance to Level 4.
Again, with a 100% game, the expected payback will be 1 betting unit,
but this Level pays twice that of Level 3, so that full expected
payback is 2 betting units.

So, for each winning hand type on Level 3, the payback to use in the
paytable is the payout for each hand PLUS the 2 betting unit expected
payout from advancing to Level 4.

If you're constructing the paytable for analysis of Jacks or Better on
Level 3, you'll add 2 for each coin played to the payout of every
hand. For example, the payout used for a 5 coin wager on Two Pair
would be 10 + (2*5) = 20.

···

----------

Now, it's worthy to note that payouts for hands on Level 3 are
actually multiplied by 4. However, for purposes of analyzing the
proper strategy for Level 3, it doesn't matter whether you multiply
all payouts by 4 or simply use the base payouts for that Level. Both
produce the same result.

----------

Having reasoned out how to treat Level 3, earlier Levels can be
handled in a similar manner. When looking at Level 2, the value of
advancement with a win is 2 for Level 3 play plus, should play advance
to Level 4 with a win (or Free Ride) on Level 3, another 2 for Level 4.

We're analyzing the value of a win on Level 2 (after all, we're
establishing the proper paytable for each winning hand), so it's a
given that play will advance to Level 3. However, it's now not
certain that we'll advance to Level 4.

Here's where it's necessary to know that the Free Ride frequencies for
each level have been set at values that, when an optimal play strategy
is used (the one that is represented by the adjusted payouts
determined here - +2/+4/+6) the probability of advancement to the next
Level is roughly 50%.

So, from the perspective of play on Level 2, the relative expected
payout for a win on Level 4 is 4 times that of Level 2 (reflecting
respective payout multipliers of 8x and 2x). Again, assuming a 100%
game, the EV of Level 4 play is 1 bet, multiplied by the 4 times
greater payouts = 4. However, when a win on Level 2 is assumed, the
probability of advancing to Level 4 with a win on Level 3 is 50%.
This means that, bottom line, the value added by potential advancement
to Level 4 after a win on Level 2 is 2 betting units.

So, we augment the Level 2 payouts by adding 2 betting units for the
value of the guaranteed advancement to Level 3, and by another 2 units
(a total of 4) for the 50% likelihood of advancing to Level 4 with a
win on Level 3.

----------

Can you see where this is going to for Level 1?

In analyzing Level 1, the value of advancement to Level 2 is analogous
to the analysis of Level 2 and the value of advancement to Level 3.
We add 2 betting units here.

Similarly, the value of advancement to Level 3 in this case is
comparable to the value of advancement to Level 4 when we were
assessing play on Level 2.

That leaves valuing the potential advancement to Level 4 from Level 1.
The probability of advancing to Level 2 is a given at 100%. The
probability at continuing to advance to Level 3 is 50%. The
probability of advancement to Level 4 play is equal to the probability
that we'll advance to Level 3 and (i.e. times) the probability of
advancing to Level 4 from Level 3. A joint probability of 25%.

Because the payouts on Level 4 (8x) are 8 times that of Level 1, the
EV of a win on Level 4 is 8 (our 100% ER x the multiplier). HOwever,
the probability of the win is 25%, so the adjusted EV of potential
Level 4 play to be added to Level 1 is 8 betting units * 25% or, again, 2.

We augment the Level 1 payouts by 2 units for Level 2 advancement, and
another 2 units each for potential advancement to Levels 3 and 4. A
total of 6.

------------

+2/+4/+6 -- got it?

I apologize for the long winded explanation - I'm sure it could be
considerably condensed. Hopefully you've skimmed and caught the full
gist.

- Harry

#8

Ummm...OK. Should I put my 75 Cents in the machine?

(Wow, I just realized how non-techie I play video poker. <G>)

TK

···

-----Original Message-----
From: Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 19:23:53 -0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Multi-strike

John wrote:

Can someone explain the math behind the 2/4/6 numbers and how they
were arrived at? They dont seem intuitive to me at all. I would
expect all paying hands on Level 1 to be worth far more, since not
getting a paying hand causes you to miss out on the next 3 levels!

I'll offer up a reply with a modestly different perspective from that
of JBQ -- but his reply is accruate.

Jumping up to Level 3, the question is how to value the potential of
advancement to, and a win on, Level 4.

For simplicity's sake, it's assumed that the ER of the base game is
100%. So, on a wager of 1 betting unit, the expected payback is 1
betting unit.

Any time a win is scored on Level 3, you'll advance to Level 4.
Again, with a 100% game, the expected payback will be 1 betting unit,
but this Level pays twice that of Level 3, so that full expected
payback is 2 betting units.

So, for each winning hand type on Level 3, the payback to use in the
paytable is the payout for each hand PLUS the 2 betting unit expected
payout from advancing to Level 4.

If you're constructing the paytable for analysis of Jacks or Better on
Level 3, you'll add 2 for each coin played to the payout of every
hand. For example, the payout used for a 5 coin wager on Two Pair
would be 10 + (2*5) = 20.

----------

Now, it's worthy to note that payouts for hands on Level 3 are
actually multiplied by 4. However, for purposes of analyzing the
proper strategy for Level 3, it doesn't matter whether you multiply
all payouts by 4 or simply use the base payouts for that Level. Both
produce the same result.

----------

Having reasoned out how to treat Level 3, earlier Levels can be
handled in a similar manner. When looking at Level 2, the value of
advancement with a win is 2 for Level 3 play plus, should play advance
to Level 4 with a win (or Free Ride) on Level 3, another 2 for Level 4.

We're analyzing the value of a win on Level 2 (after all, we're
establishing the proper paytable for each winning hand), so it's a
given that play will advance to Level 3. However, it's now not
certain that we'll advance to Level 4.

Here's where it's necessary to know that the Free Ride frequencies for
each level have been set at values that, when an optimal play strategy
is used (the one that is represented by the adjusted payouts
determined here - +2/+4/+6) the probability of advancement to the next
Level is roughly 50%.

So, from the perspective of play on Level 2, the relative expected
payout for a win on Level 4 is 4 times that of Level 2 (reflecting
respective payout multipliers of 8x and 2x). Again, assuming a 100%
game, the EV of Level 4 play is 1 bet, multiplied by the 4 times
greater payouts = 4. However, when a win on Level 2 is assumed, the
probability of advancing to Level 4 with a win on Level 3 is 50%.
This means that, bottom line, the value added by potential advancement
to Level 4 after a win on Level 2 is 2 betting units.

So, we augment the Level 2 payouts by adding 2 betting units for the
value of the guaranteed advancement to Level 3, and by another 2 units
(a total of 4) for the 50% likelihood of advancing to Level 4 with a
win on Level 3.

----------

Can you see where this is going to for Level 1?

In analyzing Level 1, the value of advancement to Level 2 is analogous
to the analysis of Level 2 and the value of advancement to Level 3.
We add 2 betting units here.

Similarly, the value of advancement to Level 3 in this case is
comparable to the value of advancement to Level 4 when we were
assessing play on Level 2.

That leaves valuing the potential advancement to Level 4 from Level 1.
The probability of advancing to Level 2 is a given at 100%. The
probability at continuing to advance to Level 3 is 50%. The
probability of advancement to Level 4 play is equal to the probability
that we'll advance to Level 3 and (i.e. times) the probability of
advancing to Level 4 from Level 3. A joint probability of 25%.

Because the payouts on Level 4 (8x) are 8 times that of Level 1, the
EV of a win on Level 4 is 8 (our 100% ER x the multiplier). HOwever,
the probability of the win is 25%, so the adjusted EV of potential
Level 4 play to be added to Level 1 is 8 betting units * 25% or, again, 2.

We augment the Level 1 payouts by 2 units for Level 2 advancement, and
another 2 units each for potential advancement to Levels 3 and 4. A
total of 6.

------------

+2/+4/+6 -- got it?

I apologize for the long winded explanation - I'm sure it could be
considerably condensed. Hopefully you've skimmed and caught the full
gist.

- Harry

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#9

Thanks JBQ and Harry for the great explanations!

I'll accept as a given that 2/4/6 should be added to each 1-coin paytable value, or 10/20/30 to each 5-coin value. Given these adjustments, what are the strategy changes? Bob Dancer mentioned a few in his article, but has anyone analyzed them completely? I'm hoping to save myself some time :slight_smile:

John

John wrote:

Can someone explain the math behind the 2/4/6 numbers and how they
were arrived at? They dont seem intuitive to me at all. I would
expect all paying hands on Level 1 to be worth far more, since not
getting a paying hand causes you to miss out on the next 3 levels!

I'll offer up a reply with a modestly different perspective from that
of JBQ -- but his reply is accruate.

Jumping up to Level 3, the question is how to value the potential of
advancement to, and a win on, Level 4.

For simplicity's sake, it's assumed that the ER of the base game is
100%. So, on a wager of 1 betting unit, the expected payback is 1
betting unit.

Any time a win is scored on Level 3, you'll advance to Level 4.
Again, with a 100% game, the expected payback will be 1 betting unit,
but this Level pays twice that of Level 3, so that full expected
payback is 2 betting units.

So, for each winning hand type on Level 3, the payback to use in the
paytable is the payout for each hand PLUS the 2 betting unit expected
payout from advancing to Level 4.

If you're constructing the paytable for analysis of Jacks or Better on
Level 3, you'll add 2 for each coin played to the payout of every
hand. For example, the payout used for a 5 coin wager on Two Pair
would be 10 + (2*5) = 20.

···

Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net> wrote:

----------

Now, it's worthy to note that payouts for hands on Level 3 are
actually multiplied by 4. However, for purposes of analyzing the
proper strategy for Level 3, it doesn't matter whether you multiply
all payouts by 4 or simply use the base payouts for that Level. Both
produce the same result.

----------

Having reasoned out how to treat Level 3, earlier Levels can be
handled in a similar manner. When looking at Level 2, the value of
advancement with a win is 2 for Level 3 play plus, should play advance
to Level 4 with a win (or Free Ride) on Level 3, another 2 for Level 4.

We're analyzing the value of a win on Level 2 (after all, we're
establishing the proper paytable for each winning hand), so it's a
given that play will advance to Level 3. However, it's now not
certain that we'll advance to Level 4.

Here's where it's necessary to know that the Free Ride frequencies for
each level have been set at values that, when an optimal play strategy
is used (the one that is represented by the adjusted payouts
determined here - +2/+4/+6) the probability of advancement to the next
Level is roughly 50%.

So, from the perspective of play on Level 2, the relative expected
payout for a win on Level 4 is 4 times that of Level 2 (reflecting
respective payout multipliers of 8x and 2x). Again, assuming a 100%
game, the EV of Level 4 play is 1 bet, multiplied by the 4 times
greater payouts = 4. However, when a win on Level 2 is assumed, the
probability of advancing to Level 4 with a win on Level 3 is 50%.
This means that, bottom line, the value added by potential advancement
to Level 4 after a win on Level 2 is 2 betting units.

So, we augment the Level 2 payouts by adding 2 betting units for the
value of the guaranteed advancement to Level 3, and by another 2 units
(a total of 4) for the 50% likelihood of advancing to Level 4 with a
win on Level 3.

----------

Can you see where this is going to for Level 1?

In analyzing Level 1, the value of advancement to Level 2 is analogous
to the analysis of Level 2 and the value of advancement to Level 3.
We add 2 betting units here.

Similarly, the value of advancement to Level 3 in this case is
comparable to the value of advancement to Level 4 when we were
assessing play on Level 2.

That leaves valuing the potential advancement to Level 4 from Level 1.
The probability of advancing to Level 2 is a given at 100%. The
probability at continuing to advance to Level 3 is 50%. The
probability of advancement to Level 4 play is equal to the probability
that we'll advance to Level 3 and (i.e. times) the probability of
advancing to Level 4 from Level 3. A joint probability of 25%.

Because the payouts on Level 4 (8x) are 8 times that of Level 1, the
EV of a win on Level 4 is 8 (our 100% ER x the multiplier). HOwever,
the probability of the win is 25%, so the adjusted EV of potential
Level 4 play to be added to Level 1 is 8 betting units * 25% or, again, 2.

We augment the Level 1 payouts by 2 units for Level 2 advancement, and
another 2 units each for potential advancement to Levels 3 and 4. A
total of 6.

------------

+2/+4/+6 -- got it?

I apologize for the long winded explanation - I'm sure it could be
considerably condensed. Hopefully you've skimmed and caught the full
gist.

- Harry

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

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#10

(Wow, I just realized how non-techie I play video poker. <G>)

Be careful with that admission around these parts -- if you say you play for enjoyment and you don't follow the party line, you're likely to be flamed. :stuck_out_tongue:

#11

TKeep123 wrote:

  Ummm...OK. Should I put my 75 Cents in the machine?

Come on ... at least spring for a buck so you've got a shot at a 2000
cr. top line royal ('course, I'm told that a 32000 cr. full coin hit
is MUCH more satisfying :wink:

(Wow, I just realized how non-techie I play video poker. <G>)

Don't sweat it ... most people don't need to tear clocks apart either
to have confidence that they work :wink:

- Harry

#12

John wrote:

I'll accept as a given that 2/4/6 should be added to each 1-coin
paytable value, or 10/20/30 to each 5-coin value. Given these
adjustments, what are the strategy changes? Bob Dancer mentioned a
few in his article, but has anyone analyzed them completely? I'm
hoping to save myself some time :slight_smile:

Dancer has noted the key adjustments that will achieve almost all of
the potential ER of this game. Keep in mind that with 4 different
strategies to track, there's a definite advantage to keeping things
simple.

Any serious player should have a strategy generator on hand that will
allow creating game strategies on the fly by simply specifying the
appropriate paytable. Two strong products are Frugal VP (FVP) and VP
Strategy Master (VPSM).

There's a strategy for MS 9/6 Jacks presented at the GameMaster Online
website. Because of peculiarities in the ads which frame the pages of
this site, I can't provide a direct link to that article. Here's the
link to the vp pages -- look for the MS article link in the right column.

http://www.gamemasteronline.com/indexa.shtml?VideoPokerContent.shtml

- Harry

#13

There'a a complete strategy for 9/6 JoB at the wizard of odds, which
is an auto-generated one and could live with a bit of simplification.

If I remember correctly the strategies for levels 1 and 2 are pretty
close for JoB, as are the ones for level 3 and 4, so if you can
remember only the "regular" single-line strategy and a common strategy
for levels 1 and 2 you can play reasonably accurately. Now, I didn't
actually study those strategies in very deep detail, and I'm sure that
someone will chime in with the differences between levels 1 and 2, or
3 and 4.

I've yet to see an analysis of the total variance of the game.

JBQ

···

On 8/10/05, John <john_oc_ca@yahoo.com> wrote:

I'll accept as a given that 2/4/6 should be added to each 1-coin paytable value, or 10/20/30 to each 5-coin value. Given these adjustments, what are the strategy changes? Bob Dancer mentioned a few in his article, but has anyone analyzed them completely? I'm hoping to save myself some time :slight_smile:

#14

Thanks. Just after I posted this question, I found the WizardOfOdds article with the VPSM strategies...sorry about that! :slight_smile:

I'll accept as a given that 2/4/6 should be added to each 1-coin
paytable value, or 10/20/30 to each 5-coin value. Given these
adjustments, what are the strategy changes? Bob Dancer mentioned a
few in his article, but has anyone analyzed them completely? I'm
hoping to save myself some time :slight_smile:

Dancer has noted the key adjustments that will achieve almost all of
the potential ER of this game. Keep in mind that with 4 different
strategies to track, there's a definite advantage to keeping things
simple.

Any serious player should have a strategy generator on hand that will
allow creating game strategies on the fly by simply specifying the
appropriate paytable. Two strong products are Frugal VP (FVP) and VP
Strategy Master (VPSM).

There's a strategy for MS 9/6 Jacks presented at the GameMaster Online
website. Because of peculiarities in the ads which frame the pages of
this site, I can't provide a direct link to that article. Here's the
link to the vp pages -- look for the MS article link in the right column.

http://www.gamemasteronline.com/indexa.shtml?VideoPokerContent.shtml

- Harry

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

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Gambling Online gambling Outdoor recreation Recreation software

···

Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net> wrote:John wrote:

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#15

Jean-Baptiste Queru wrote

I've yet to see an analysis of the total variance of the game.

4 Level 9/6 Jacks has a variance of 21.0
3 Level Jacks, for which the ER is reduced to 99.66%, has a variance
of 16.6.

This suggests that the bankroll swings of 4-Level $.25 MS will be
rougher than those of $1 single line play.

3-Level play will have a ride that is much smoother -- a little more
turbulant than $.50 single line play.

- Harry

#16

I had thought that BC was pretty generous with comps. Is that no longer true?

I think that's a reference to QUALITY of comps ...

Gothcha. No "Cirque du Ka-Ka" or or salon or fab suites or anything. Good point.

Reflections: while VP has more or less stablized in greater LV, comps and room offers are stinking it up. As others have pointed out, not much chance of that changing as long as the hordes of yokels keep showing up and paying $300 a night for every room in the joint, there is limited incentive for hotels to give away rooms for free. With no massive influx of hotel rooms under construction, things are likely to get worse before they get better.

#17

Thanks for the info, Harry and John Thomas....appreciate the addional insight! (Wasn't sure if a little humor was out of place here.)

TK

···

-----Original Message-----
From: Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 19:48:40 -0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Multi-strike

TKeep123 wrote:

  Ummm...OK. Should I put my 75 Cents in the machine?

Come on ... at least spring for a buck so you've got a shot at a 2000
cr. top line royal ('course, I'm told that a 32000 cr. full coin hit
is MUCH more satisfying :wink:

(Wow, I just realized how non-techie I play video poker. <G>)

Don't sweat it ... most people don't need to tear clocks apart either
to have confidence that they work :wink:

- Harry

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#18

My tongue remains in my cheek. :wink:

···

  Thanks for the info, Harry and John Thomas....appreciate the addional insight! (Wasn't sure if a little humor was out of place here.)