vpFREE2 Forums

7 month losing streak....

#1

In the last 6 months of 2010 I only played 185,000 hands of VP and had a 97.33% return despite the machine only EV of 99.62%. Needless to say I lost despite all the cash back and mailers for my play.

So far in 2011, I have played 108,000 hands and my return is 97.44% vs a machine only EV of 99.56%. Again I am losing for the year with all the perks added in.

Bottom line, to have a 97.37% return or less after 293,000 hands when average game played returns 99.60 will happen only 1 in 150 times.

I guess I beat the odds. TomSki

#2

Your statement is true with 100% mathematically perfect play. However, if your play is less than perfect, say 97-98% perfect play, the chances for the results that you received increases significantly. Also, keep in mind, if your play is at or very near 100% perfect, after only a couple thousand hands of good luck (such as 2-3 royal flushes) your results may then be at or even above the expected return .

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ThomasS" <tomskilv@...> wrote:

In the last 6 months of 2010 I only played 185,000 hands of VP and had a 97.33% return despite the machine only EV of 99.62%. Needless to say I lost despite all the cash back and mailers for my play.

So far in 2011, I have played 108,000 hands and my return is 97.44% vs a machine only EV of 99.56%. Again I am losing for the year with all the perks added in.

Bottom line, to have a 97.37% return or less after 293,000 hands when average game played returns 99.60 will happen only 1 in 150 times.

I guess I beat the odds. TomSki

#3

ThomasS <tomskilv@> wrote:

> Bottom line, to have a 97.37% return or less after 293,000 hands
> when average game played returns 99.60 will happen only 1 in 150
> times.
>
> I guess I beat the odds. TomSki

Jim <deucesdamule@> wrote:

Your statement is true with 100% mathematically perfect play.
However, if your play is less than perfect, say 97-98% perfect
play, the chances for the results that you received increases
significantly. Also, keep in mind, if your play is at or very near
100% perfect, after only a couple thousand hands of good luck (such
as 2-3 royal flushes) your results may then be at or even above the
expected return .

I'm sure Tom (one of the better known LV veterans) appreciates the platitudes.

#4

"Platitudes?"

In what way am I degrading Tom's statement? I am merely observing a breakdown of possible causes and results. I'm sure Tom plays a tremendous amount as do I. However, we all do make errors at times. The better the player the lower the amount of errors. I'm sure Tom is playing above a 99.5% perfection rate, but even so, the slightest variation of perfect play combined with bad luck will obviously lower the return. I've had runs just as bad, if not worse, and I've had very lucky spurts where the return was incredibly high. Let's face it, the expected value is the true mathmatical goal with an infinite number of hands played and 293,000 hands is far from infinity. So in the short term, which I would classify as anything less than 1 million hands, luck will reign supreme in determining the overall return of a game, not the expected value.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

ThomasS <tomskilv@> wrote:
> > Bottom line, to have a 97.37% return or less after 293,000 hands
> > when average game played returns 99.60 will happen only 1 in 150
> > times.
> >
> > I guess I beat the odds. TomSki

Jim <deucesdamule@> wrote:
> Your statement is true with 100% mathematically perfect play.
> However, if your play is less than perfect, say 97-98% perfect
> play, the chances for the results that you received increases
> significantly. Also, keep in mind, if your play is at or very near
> 100% perfect, after only a couple thousand hands of good luck (such
> as 2-3 royal flushes) your results may then be at or even above the
> expected return .

I'm sure Tom (one of the better known LV veterans) appreciates the platitudes.

#5

Tom, what were you short of? If it's flushes, that matches my theory that the casino practice of shining spotlights at the screens creates eye fatigue and the first thing the tired eye misses is the distinction between suits. A four color deck would help but don't count on the casinos adopting that any time soon. Polarized glasses can help as well as putting small sticky notes on the screen to deflect the spotlight glare. I probably don't need to point out that as we age our eyes lose their youthful abilities. You might also try experimenting with the computer trainer software of your choice, see what happens to your error rate when you shine a high intensity spotlight at the screen. Frank claims he's working on trainer software that will model the distractions of the real casino environment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four-color_deck

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

ThomasS <tomskilv@> wrote:
> > Bottom line, to have a 97.37% return or less after 293,000 hands
> > when average game played returns 99.60 will happen only 1 in 150
> > times.
> >
> > I guess I beat the odds. TomSki

Jim <deucesdamule@> wrote:
> Your statement is true with 100% mathematically perfect play.
> However, if your play is less than perfect, say 97-98% perfect
> play, the chances for the results that you received increases
> significantly. Also, keep in mind, if your play is at or very near
> 100% perfect, after only a couple thousand hands of good luck (such
> as 2-3 royal flushes) your results may then be at or even above the
> expected return .

I'm sure Tom (one of the better known LV veterans) appreciates the platitudes.

#6

Hay great post. I'm doing a show on preventative health measures for VP players soon. I'll include something on eye strain since, you brought it up.

And yes I'm working on a more realistic environment for training VP. Next Thursday Bob and I will talk about error type and the different methods of fixing certain issues.

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
Tom, what were you short of? If it's flushes, that matches my theory that the casino practice of shining spotlights at the screens creates eye fatigue and the first thing the tired eye misses is the distinction between suits. A four color deck would help but don't count on the casinos adopting that any time soon. Polarized glasses can help as well as putting small sticky notes on the screen to deflect the spotlight glare. I probably don't need to point out that as we age our eyes lose their youthful abilities. You might also try experimenting with the computer trainer software of your choice, see what happens to your error rate when you shine a high intensity spotlight at the screen. Frank claims he's working on trainer software that will model the distractions of the real casino environment.

#7

I have you beat. Approx 100,000 hands on 99% DDB in 2010 with a 93% return. Similar results in 2009.

George

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ThomasS" <tomskilv@...> wrote:

In the last 6 months of 2010 I only played 185,000 hands of VP and had a 97.33% return despite the machine only EV of 99.62%. Needless to say I lost despite all the cash back and mailers for my play.

So far in 2011, I have played 108,000 hands and my return is 97.44% vs a machine only EV of 99.56%. Again I am losing for the year with all the perks added in.

Bottom line, to have a 97.37% return or less after 293,000 hands when average game played returns 99.60 will happen only 1 in 150 times.

I guess I beat the odds. TomSki

#8

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jim" <deucesdamule@...> wrote:Your statement is true with 100% mathematically perfect play. However, if your play is less than perfect, say 97-98% perfect play, the chances for the results that you received increases significantly. Also, keep in mind, if your play is at or very near 100% perfect, after only a couple thousand hands of good luck (such as 2-3 royal flushes) your results may then be at or even above the expected return.

This is TomSki we are talking about. He wrote VP strategy master. If anyone plays close to perfectly I'm sure it's him.

I had an 11 cycle RF runner once. It just happens. Of course, in my case, my bad run didn't result in loses, because of partnering up with others. It's a great way to go if you can find people you can trust.

~FK