vpFREE2 Forums

okie_bj21 · January 14, 2020, 5:00pm

Would it not be better to use the above ACG coupon on the highest
denomination your BR will withstand even if it means playing short-
coin. ie...$1 at 1 coin versus 25c and 5 coin?
Thanks,
Okie

Jean_Scott1 · January 14, 2020, 6:23pm

<<Would it not be better to use the above ACG coupon on the highest
denomination your BR will withstand even if it means playing short-
coin. ie...$1 at 1 coin versus 25c and 5 coin?>>

I'm not sure about this one - but often this sort of coupon states you must be playing max coins.

···

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Chandler1 · January 14, 2020, 6:23pm

I'm not sure what coupon you are talking about, but often the quad bonuses
come with small print to the effect that you must be playing max coin. I
think they would be too profitable otherwise. Generally you are correct.
It maximizes the expected value of the coupon the higher you play. I'm not
sure long term bankroll considerations apply to the situation very well as
the coupon is a short term goal. I'm not one of the math gear heads, but I
would first look at the frequency at which the bonus hand appears to get an
idea of how many hands you may need to play during your session. It might
help you determine a comfort level for higher denominations than you would
ordinarily play.

Chandler

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
okie_bj21
Sent: Monday, November 28, 2005 11:54 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] 50 coin bonus

Would it not be better to use the above ACG coupon on the highest
denomination your BR will withstand even if it means playing short-
coin. ie...$1 at 1 coin versus 25c and 5 coin?
Thanks,
Okie

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

nightoftheiguana2000 · January 14, 2020, 6:23pm

9/6 JOB max-er strategy played till quad or bust has an
R(1)=0.977732374121128, so the risk of losing 25 bets (125 coins at 5
coins per bet) is 0.977732374121128^25=56.9508078%, the risk of losing
50 bets is 0.977732374121128^50=32.4339451%, the risk of losing 100
bets is 0.977732374121128^100=10.5196079% ...

breakeven bankroll is 25 bets (the pay of a quad) + 10 bets (the pay
of the coupon) = 35 bets, 0.977732374121128^35=45.46737104885%

mean bankroll is ln(.5)/ln(0.977732374121128)=30.78014910639 bets, so
the coupon has a mean value of 35 - 30.78014910639 = 4.219850893612
bets, half the time you will win more, half the time you will win less
(or lose), if you can get a large number of coupons and commit the
time and bankroll to play them accurately, in the long term the coupon
has greater value (~8 bets)

10/7 db till quad or bust R(1)=0.987303515314373

I'm not sure what coupon you are talking about, but often the quad

bonuses

come with small print to the effect that you must be playing max

coin. I

think they would be too profitable otherwise. Generally you are

correct.

It maximizes the expected value of the coupon the higher you play.

I'm not

sure long term bankroll considerations apply to the situation very

well as

the coupon is a short term goal. I'm not one of the math gear

heads, but I

would first look at the frequency at which the bonus hand appears to

get an

idea of how many hands you may need to play during your session. It

might

help you determine a comfort level for higher denominations than you

would

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Chandler" <omnibibulous1@c...> wrote:

ordinarily play.

Chandler

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
okie_bj21
Sent: Monday, November 28, 2005 11:54 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] 50 coin bonus

Would it not be better to use the above ACG coupon on the highest
denomination your BR will withstand even if it means playing short-
coin. ie...$1 at 1 coin versus 25c and 5 coin?
Thanks,
Okie

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

nightoftheiguana2000 · January 14, 2020, 6:23pm

i should be more careful in my terminology:
the median EV of the coupon on 9/6 job max-er strategy is 4.22 bets
(21.1 coins at 5 coins/bet), half the time you will do better, half
the time you will do worse
http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/stat_sim/descriptive/

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

9/6 JOB max-er strategy played till quad or bust has an
R(1)=0.977732374121128, so the risk of losing 25 bets (125 coins at 5
coins per bet) is 0.977732374121128^25=56.9508078%, the risk of losing
50 bets is 0.977732374121128^50=32.4339451%, the risk of losing 100
bets is 0.977732374121128^100=10.5196079% ...

breakeven bankroll is 25 bets (the pay of a quad) + 10 bets (the pay
of the coupon) = 35 bets, 0.977732374121128^35=45.46737104885%

mean bankroll is ln(.5)/ln(0.977732374121128)=30.78014910639 bets, so
the coupon has a mean value of 35 - 30.78014910639 = 4.219850893612
bets, half the time you will win more, half the time you will win less
(or lose), if you can get a large number of coupons and commit the
time and bankroll to play them accurately, in the long term the coupon
has greater value (~8 bets)

10/7 db till quad or bust R(1)=0.987303515314373

>
> I'm not sure what coupon you are talking about, but often the quad
bonuses
> come with small print to the effect that you must be playing max
coin. I
> think they would be too profitable otherwise. Generally you are
correct.
> It maximizes the expected value of the coupon the higher you play.
I'm not
> sure long term bankroll considerations apply to the situation very
well as
> the coupon is a short term goal. I'm not one of the math gear
heads, but I
> would first look at the frequency at which the bonus hand appears to
get an
> idea of how many hands you may need to play during your session. It
might
> help you determine a comfort level for higher denominations than you
would
> ordinarily play.
>
> Chandler
>
> From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On

Behalf Of

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Chandler" <omnibibulous1@c...> wrote:
> -----Original Message-----
> okie_bj21
> Sent: Monday, November 28, 2005 11:54 AM
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: [vpFREE] 50 coin bonus
>
>
> Would it not be better to use the above ACG coupon on the highest
> denomination your BR will withstand even if it means playing short-
> coin. ie...$1 at 1 coin versus 25c and 5 coin?
> Thanks,
> Okie
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>

Chandler1 · January 14, 2020, 6:23pm

It is times like this that I wish I hadn't played hooky during so many math
classes to read in the library. Thanks Lizard Man.