vpFREE2 Forums

$5 Vp Bankroll

IMHO very well said, not sure what "certainty equivalence"
means , but you really hit at the heart of the problem
(bankroll vs. expectation (or win per hour)). I remember
prior posts where you went 7-8 hours sans Quads. Bad
things can (and if we play long enough, Will Happen).
How many of use have taken shots and had it work out
good. Don't see a lot of posts on the other side.
A quasi Danser example:
A friend of mine , under the gun to get X amount of play
in a short period of time , stepped up to a much higher
risk level , got lucky, hit the RF. He/She or It would not
normally have done this except for the time constraints
and other benefits of providing the acceptable level of play.

···

-----Original Message-----
    From: tomskilv <tomskilv@yahoo.com> <tomskilv@yahoo.com>
    To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
    Date: Monday, December 16, 2002 5:03 PM
    Subject: [vpFREE] $5 Vp Bankroll
    
    Many players greatly underestimate reasonable bankroll requirements.
    Even with .5% cash back on 10-7 DB, a $60,000 bankroll would be way
    too small to reasonably surive on $5 VP. $200,000 would be more
    realistic. One would be much better off to play $1 DB rather than $5
    DB with 'only' $60,000. Using certainty equivalence, I developed a
    rating system to judge different games and different denominations
    that incorporates variance, game return %, and bankroll. The rating
    on $5 DB above with 60k is only about $14 CE an hour, while a $1 DB
    game is a $19 certainty equivalence per hour. Good luck. TomSki
    
    >
    > Let's work with Valerie's calculations that a proper bankroll of JB
    is
    > 2400 bets (e.g. $60K for $5 play or $25 bet). Now, I'm not sure
    what
    > edge is assumed for play, but I guesstimate that this correlates to
    > around a .5% with a moderate risk of ruin. I could be way off, but
    > given that we're talking about a bankroll of only 3 RF's, I can't
    > imagine we're looking at a smaller edge than this.
    
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<<<
IMHO very well said, not sure what "certainty equivalence"
means , but you really hit at the heart of the problem
(bankroll vs. expectation (or win per hour)). I remember
prior posts where you went 7-8 hours sans Quads.

  I have not done nearly that bad, but I did feed
20 C notes into a $DB machine before finally getting a
quad, and it was not a bonus quad.

Bad things can (and if we play long enough, Will Happen).
How many of use have taken shots and had it work out
good.

  I did it once and it worked very well. I hit
4 dollar RFs within 6 weeks of playing maybe 10 hours
a week. This was in January/Feb a few years ago. Then,
due to a change in the cashback I was getting on the best
of 2 dollar plays, (1.5% CB plus mailers on 9/6 JOB)
I reverted to quarters. I am sure I had the bankroll to
play it, but I decided in advance that I would limit my
losses to 5K. In that sense, it was taking a shot.

  I believe this kind of shot taking is OK. If
you lose your 'stake', just revert to quarter play
until you win another stake of the same size and then
go for it again. Personally, I really don't like the
idea of doing this when the edge is fairly small, even
when the hourly EV for the play is fairly good. However,
when the base ER for the higher play is strong, I think
this is a good idea, even if your bankroll is not quite
big enough. Even so, I think you should at least have
enough of a 'stake' to have at worst a 20% Risk of ruin,
but that is obviously a purely subjective number.

  Ny only other experience with playing dollars
exclusively was last year, but this one was intended to
be more or less long term. In reality, it only lasted
about 8 weeks. I got 4 RFs very quickly, just like the other
time. However, after that, I lost back about 10K and the
whole thing only gave me a profit of about 5K. AA is not
much fun when you cannot get those straight flushes. Losing
2200 in one session is not much fun either.

  If I had a story where I took a shot and got crushed,
I would tell it, but so far I don't have one. Given my
current situation, I am very unlikely to take any shots.
I play dollars when I have over a 1% edge, but that is
not all that common anymore. I really don't consider that
taking a shot, but it is certainly the highest I am
comfortable playing. I have played a bit of 2$ JOB, with
an edge of about 1.4% due to a promotion, but that game has
a lot lower variance, so it really is not any more dangerous
than $DB with a promotion worth over 1%.

  QZ