IMHO very well said, not sure what "certainty equivalence"
means , but you really hit at the heart of the problem
(bankroll vs. expectation (or win per hour)). I remember
prior posts where you went 7-8 hours sans Quads. Bad
things can (and if we play long enough, Will Happen).
How many of use have taken shots and had it work out
good. Don't see a lot of posts on the other side.
A quasi Danser example:
A friend of mine , under the gun to get X amount of play
in a short period of time , stepped up to a much higher
risk level , got lucky, hit the RF. He/She or It would not
normally have done this except for the time constraints
and other benefits of providing the acceptable level of play.
···
-----Original Message-----
From: tomskilv <tomskilv@yahoo.com> <tomskilv@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Monday, December 16, 2002 5:03 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] $5 Vp Bankroll
Many players greatly underestimate reasonable bankroll requirements.
Even with .5% cash back on 10-7 DB, a $60,000 bankroll would be way
too small to reasonably surive on $5 VP. $200,000 would be more
realistic. One would be much better off to play $1 DB rather than $5
DB with 'only' $60,000. Using certainty equivalence, I developed a
rating system to judge different games and different denominations
that incorporates variance, game return %, and bankroll. The rating
on $5 DB above with 60k is only about $14 CE an hour, while a $1 DB
game is a $19 certainty equivalence per hour. Good luck. TomSki
>
> Let's work with Valerie's calculations that a proper bankroll of JB
is
> 2400 bets (e.g. $60K for $5 play or $25 bet). Now, I'm not sure
what
> edge is assumed for play, but I guesstimate that this correlates to
> around a .5% with a moderate risk of ruin. I could be way off, but
> given that we're talking about a bankroll of only 3 RF's, I can't
> imagine we're looking at a smaller edge than this.
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