It is certainly possible for someone to play that many hands (8,000 per day) - I personally play about 800 hands an hour, and I'm a recreational player; many here claim to be able to play 1,000 to 1,200 hands an hour on single-line (some of the necessary techniques to do so have been discussed long ago here, but the main factors seem to be the ability to make decisions and hold cards very quickly, to never pause to see what you got but simply hit the "deal" button asap to rack up the credits and get on with it, and of course to select machines with a turbo mode).
And if the player gets 1,000 hands an hour and plays (as some do) 12 hours a day, an average of 8,000 hands a day only requires playing two days out of three. When I first began playing VP, this kind of volume and time per day was typical for me; now I play much shorter hours most of the time.
The number of hands that the calculation says were necessary to get that many 4RFs is no less likely to have actually been played than the likelihood of the rest of the reports and responses having occurred as reported. Most likely, though, the number of hands predicted to get 700 or 800 4RFs is greater than the number that the player actually experienced -- i.e., he probably got more than the predicted frequency of 4RFs, and then, once he got them, got less than the predicted frequency of RFs. This can happen, of course - both parts.
And, as mentioned, while the odds of this many misses, even if accurately reported, are about 5000 to one, many less likely events have been reported here. Rare events do occur - rarely, but they occur. 5000 to one is not really rare, just uncommon. There is definitely an element of chance in VP, in case some have not noticed this! Some will get the good aspects of that element, and others the bad.
--BG
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3c. Re: 4 to the royal streaks
Posted by: "James Thompson" jamesgthompson@hotmail.com jgtusc
Date: Mon Aug 17, 2009 2:27 pm ((PDT))There is no way the post was accurate. No one can play that many hands.
>
> I'm sure it must seem like a lot to you, but is it really 700 to 800 whiffs?
Let's look at the math. You can expect to be dealt RF4 about once every 2,765
hands. So in order to get 700 - 800 chances, you would have to play about 2
million hands. Since you play mostly single line, that works out to about
260,000 hands per month or more than 8,000 hands per day, every day during 2009.>
> I'm sure your streak is bad and I'm not trying to say otherwise. Only that it
is not quite as bad as you think.> > I am on one of those really bad 4 to Royal streaks. I have not hit any this
year on single line dollars which is what I play the most. I estimate I have had
between 700 and 800 draws this year.So, if you had 4 to the Royal occur 700 times and missed them all, that would be
a 1 in 3.45 million occurrence. Even going 0 for 400, the chances are 1 in 5445.
Rare events make for some strange statistics but either you are incredibly
unlucky or the record keeping isn't quite as accurate as you think.