vpFREE2 Forums

3 to the Royal vs. High Pair playing progressives

#1

Quickly;

Anybody know if better to dump High Pair vs. 3 to Royal? 25c/JOB

What amount do I do this on JOB/ 25c Progressives?

jackinga

#2

Unfortunately there's no quickie answer. It depends on three things:
1. WHICH three-card royal you would be drawing to. They are not all
equal: AJ10 being worse than KQJ, for example.
2. The value of the fifth card (the one you would be throwing away
in any case). Discarding a 9 weakens the value of KQ10 suited, while
discarding, say, a 3 does not.
3. (Naturally) the size of the progressive. There would be
various "thresholds" where you would start keeping lousier and
lousier three-card royals in preference to the high pairs,
eventually reaching some point where you discard ALL high pairs in
favor of 3RF's. (I think this happens at about $1800 on a .25 JOB
progressive, but I'm not sure.)

This is where some good VP software comes in. Set the royal to
increments of $1000, $1200, $1400, etc. and compare on the resulting
strategy charts, where the high pair moves relative to the various
3RFs.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jackinga2003" <jackinga@h...> wrote:

Quickly;

Anybody know if better to dump High Pair vs. 3 to Royal? 25c/JOB

What amount do I do this on JOB/ 25c Progressives?

jackinga

#3

<< Anybody know if better to dump High Pair vs. 3 to Royal? 25c/JOB>>

On a non-progressive, you don't dump the high pair if you are using the basic strategy that does not take into consideration penalty cards. Learning penalty card situations is for people who enjoy this sort of thing but it does not add much to the EV. And many of us feel that the time you take to watch for penalty cards is better spent on playing more hands and getting more slot club benefits and looking for the best plays around.

···

________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - Go to http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  for VP software and strategy cards and for the
  Frugal series of books.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

Rock:

You mentioned that the 5th card matters for penalty.

Since he is keeping 3 to a royal, don't both the dumped cards
act for penalties?

Thanks,
  Neil

···

--
Neil Aggarwal, JAMM Consulting, (972)612-6056, www.JAMMConsulting.com
FREE! Valuable info on how your business can reduce operating costs by
17% or more in 6 months or less! http://newsletter.JAMMConsulting.com

-----Original Message-----
From: rockofjello333 [mailto:rockofjello…@…com]
Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2004 3:29 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 3 to the Royal vs. High Pair playing
progressives

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jackinga2003" <jackinga@h...> wrote:
>
>
> Quickly;
>
> Anybody know if better to dump High Pair vs. 3 to Royal? 25c/JOB
>
> What amount do I do this on JOB/ 25c Progressives?
>
> jackinga

Unfortunately there's no quickie answer. It depends on three things:
1. WHICH three-card royal you would be drawing to. They are not all
equal: AJ10 being worse than KQJ, for example.
2. The value of the fifth card (the one you would be throwing away
in any case). Discarding a 9 weakens the value of KQ10 suited, while
discarding, say, a 3 does not.
3. (Naturally) the size of the progressive. There would be
various "thresholds" where you would start keeping lousier and
lousier three-card royals in preference to the high pairs,
eventually reaching some point where you discard ALL high pairs in
favor of 3RF's. (I think this happens at about $1800 on a .25 JOB
progressive, but I'm not sure.)

This is where some good VP software comes in. Set the royal to
increments of $1000, $1200, $1400, etc. and compare on the resulting
strategy charts, where the high pair moves relative to the various
3RFs.

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#5

Well, in each case he is dumping a high card when he breaks the
pair, all of which would be a single straight penalty. And flush
penalties don't enter into it since by definition, the broken pair
card won't be the same suit as the three-card royal holding.

The fifth card can't be a double penalty (straight and flush) in
this case since if it was, you'd have a 4SF, which would be the
superior play over the 3RF.

So the "4th" card (the broken high card) will always have the same
penalty impact.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Neil Aggarwal" <neil@j...> wrote:

Rock:

You mentioned that the 5th card matters for penalty.

Since he is keeping 3 to a royal, don't both the dumped cards
act for penalties?

Thanks,
  Neil

#6

on 9/6 job the hp is worth 1.5 bets and the 3rf is worth 1.4
probability of drawing two to complete a royal is 2/(47*46)
so, the prog adds this amount to 3rf:
(prog-800)/1081
even money is when:
(prog-800)/1081 = 1.5 - 1.4
or:
prog= 800 + (1.5-1.4)x1081 = 908 bets ($1135 at quarters)
but the smart gambler doesn't accept even money bets
you can use the certainty equivalence to calculate when to take this
bet:
CE=EV-Variance/(2x bankroll)
and also the sharpe ratio:
ev/sqrt(variance)
(the hp has a certainty of 1 bet, but it also has an ev and associated
variance with which it can be compared to the ev and variance of the
3rf)

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jackinga2003" <jackinga@h...> wrote:

Quickly;

Anybody know if better to dump High Pair vs. 3 to Royal? 25c/JOB

What amount do I do this on JOB/ 25c Progressives?

jackinga

#7

Rock:

I see. I did not think it through that far.

Thanks,
  Neil

···

--
Neil Aggarwal, JAMM Consulting, (972)612-6056, www.JAMMConsulting.com
FREE! Valuable info on how your business can reduce operating costs by
17% or more in 6 months or less! http://newsletter.JAMMConsulting.com

-----Original Message-----
From: rockofjello333 [mailto:rockofjello…@…com]
Sent: Friday, December 10, 2004 12:40 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 3 to the Royal vs. High Pair playing
progressives

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Neil Aggarwal" <neil@j...> wrote:
> Rock:
>
> You mentioned that the 5th card matters for penalty.
>
> Since he is keeping 3 to a royal, don't both the dumped cards
> act for penalties?
>
> Thanks,
> Neil
Well, in each case he is dumping a high card when he breaks the
pair, all of which would be a single straight penalty. And flush
penalties don't enter into it since by definition, the broken pair
card won't be the same suit as the three-card royal holding.

The fifth card can't be a double penalty (straight and flush) in
this case since if it was, you'd have a 4SF, which would be the
superior play over the 3RF.

So the "4th" card (the broken high card) will always have the same
penalty impact.

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