Bob Dancer wrote:
For this play to be correct you have to consider how much you would tip
on a royal flush. If you would tip more than 33 coins for a royal flush
then you should continue to hold the SF3-0h0i.
For me personally I usually tip $100 on a $20k royal so I would make the
change. On a $4K royal I usually tip $40 so I would not make the
change.
I wish you'd come up with a way to quantify aversion to fluctuation.
Steve Jacobs emphasized this and he seemed to come up with a way, but
I never understood it. Just going by your figures above, on a $5
machine, this play costs between $19,800 and $19,900 to hit an
additional royal. Even IF I wouldn't tip at all for a royal, it would
still give me the creeps to draw to it, knowing that I was subjecting
myself to a highly fluctuating extra $19,850 or so cost to hit a
highly fluctuating extra $20,000 royal. I usually allow about a 10%
"fudge factor" and probably wouldn't draw to the royal on any hand
that had a cost per royal of more than $18,000 or so, but that's just
my gut talking and isn't based on anything mathematical. If you could
program a computer to quickly play hands that cost $19,850 per royal
and occasionally hit a $19,900 royal, would you? I sure wouldn't, no
matter how much money I had, knowing that losing streaks of hundreds
of thousands of dollars, with little hope of recovery in any near
future due to the tiny advantage, were reasonably possible, but I
don't know where to draw the line. It seems like there should be a
way to quantify it.