vpFREE2 Forums

2 Consecutive Dealt Royals

#1

I would have to agree. Rounding the odds of ONE dealt royal to 650K-1,
this would make the odds of consecutive dealt royals somewhere around
422,500,000,000 to 1, and that would fit my definition of astronomical.

- Brian in MI

In a message dated 4/15/2008 2:52:13 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
thebat@snet.net writes:

Getting two royals is key. The first one's odds against should be
considered in this situation. So it would be 649,740 * 649,740 to one.
I would describe this as astronnomical. JMHO.

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

I assume you posted this before you read the explanation of why this is
incorrect.

Cogno

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
Marksalot300@aol.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 15, 2008 1:29 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] 2 Consecutive Dealt Royals

I would have to agree. Rounding the odds of ONE dealt royal to 650K-1,
this would make the odds of consecutive dealt royals somewhere around
422,500,000,000 to 1, and that would fit my definition of astronomical.

- Brian in MI

In a message dated 4/15/2008 2:52:13 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
thebat@snet.net writes:

Getting two royals is key. The first one's odds against should be
considered in this situation. So it would be 649,740 * 649,740 to one.
I would describe this as astronnomical. JMHO.

**************It's Tax Time! Get tips, forms and advice on AOL Money &
Finance. (http://money.aol.com/tax?NCID=aolcmp00300000002850)

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

------------------------------------

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#3

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cogno Scienti" <cognoscienti@...>
wrote:

I assume you posted this before you read the explanation of why

this is

incorrect.

Cogno

From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On

Behalf Of

Marksalot300@...
Sent: Tuesday, April 15, 2008 1:29 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] 2 Consecutive Dealt Royals

I would have to agree. Rounding the odds of ONE dealt royal to

650K-1,

this would make the odds of consecutive dealt royals somewhere

around

422,500,000,000 to 1, and that would fit my definition of

astronomical.

- Brian in MI

Got to agree with Matt and Brian on this one. Mickey also stated it
correctly.

The probability of two independent events occuring is the product of
their individual probabilities, in this case ~ 1/650K x 1/650k.

So, as Mickey said, if the question is -- what is the probablility of
anyone at anytime ever getting 2 consecutive dealt royals, the answer
is ~423 billion to 1. Has it ever happened? Perhaps.

For example, suppose there are 1000 casinos in the world, with 1000
video poker machines in each, with each machine being played 800
hands per hour, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. This would result
in 7 trillion hands of vp in one year. This would be ~16 double
dealt royal cycles and should be sufficient to ensure a double dealt
royal would occur at least once.

It may not be that 7 trillion hands of vp get played each year, but
over the course of VP's existence, there probably have been that many
hands played and so consecutively dealt royals may have happened to
some astonished person.

Bill

···

-----Original Message-----

#4

Sure. But the OP was claiming that the odds it EVER happened was 65k^2 to 1.

The odds that it has ever happened (given that we don't know; if we do, of
course, the probability is either 1 or 0) is 1-(649,739/649,740)^N, where N
is the number of dealt royals that have ever been hit (statistically
1/649,740 of the number of hands of video poker ever played).

I make it about 300 billion hands for a 50-50 chance of a double dealt
royal.

Cogno

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
weharter
Sent: Tuesday, April 15, 2008 3:47 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 2 Consecutive Dealt Royals

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cogno Scienti" <cognoscienti@...>
wrote:

I assume you posted this before you read the explanation of why

this is

incorrect.

Cogno

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On

Behalf Of

Marksalot300@...
Sent: Tuesday, April 15, 2008 1:29 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] 2 Consecutive Dealt Royals

I would have to agree. Rounding the odds of ONE dealt royal to

650K-1,

this would make the odds of consecutive dealt royals somewhere

around

422,500,000,000 to 1, and that would fit my definition of

astronomical.

- Brian in MI

Got to agree with Matt and Brian on this one. Mickey also stated it
correctly.

The probability of two independent events occuring is the product of
their individual probabilities, in this case ~ 1/650K x 1/650k.

So, as Mickey said, if the question is -- what is the probablility of
anyone at anytime ever getting 2 consecutive dealt royals, the answer
is ~423 billion to 1. Has it ever happened? Perhaps.

For example, suppose there are 1000 casinos in the world, with 1000
video poker machines in each, with each machine being played 800
hands per hour, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. This would result
in 7 trillion hands of vp in one year. This would be ~16 double
dealt royal cycles and should be sufficient to ensure a double dealt
royal would occur at least once.

It may not be that 7 trillion hands of vp get played each year, but
over the course of VP's existence, there probably have been that many
hands played and so consecutively dealt royals may have happened to
some astonished person.

Bill

------------------------------------

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#5

When I first saw this original posting, it reminded me of a "helpful" machine I once saw that had a very limited "autohold" feature. To be specific, it would autohold royal flushes, and only royal flushes. That means if you press all 5 HOLD buttons and hit DRAW without paying attention, you are throwing every card away.

Now, what's the probability of throwing away a dealt royal flush, and then getting another dealt royal flush, on the SAME HAND?

That would be quite a surprise for the hapless VP player... I might even say "lucky"....

Dave

#6

When I first saw this original posting, it reminded me of a "helpful"
machine I once saw that had a very limited "autohold" feature. To be
specific, it would autohold royal flushes, and only royal flushes.

That

means if you press all 5 HOLD buttons and hit DRAW without paying
attention, you are throwing every card away.

Now, what's the probability of throwing away a dealt royal flush, and
then getting another dealt royal flush, on the SAME HAND?

That would be quite a surprise for the hapless VP player... I might

even

say "lucky"....

Dave

Maybe I'm not reading your post right, but I don't see how if you hold
all 5 cards it could discard your dealt royal? I want to make sure I
understand, don't want to thow away the only royal I'll probably ever
get!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dave Decot <davedecot@...> wrote:

#7

Dave was referring to machines that automatically press "hold" on
certain cards. If the player then presses "hold" on the same cards and
draws, they'd be discarded. I've seen some hilarious plays lately
along those lines, not of auto-hold, but of players first holding what
they want and then "modifying" it before they draw. One man held what
he wanted and then was telling the machine, as he touched the screen,
what he wanted in place of the cards he meant to discard. It took him
several tries before he realized that he was holding those cards he
meant to discard by touching the screen.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dave Decot <davedecot@...> wrote:

When I first saw this original posting, it reminded me of a "helpful"
machine I once saw that had a very limited "autohold" feature. To be
specific, it would autohold royal flushes, and only royal flushes.

That

means if you press all 5 HOLD buttons and hit DRAW without paying
attention, you are throwing every card away.

Now, what's the probability of throwing away a dealt royal flush, and
then getting another dealt royal flush, on the SAME HAND?

That would be quite a surprise for the hapless VP player... I might

even

say "lucky"....

Dave

Maybe I'm not reading your post right, but I don't see how if you hold
all 5 cards it could discard your dealt royal? I want to make sure I
understand, don't want to thow away the only royal I'll probably ever
get!