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10/7 v. FPDW variance

Variance by itself is a poor indicator of what results to expect, whether short or long term. While the variance of 10/7 DB is not much greater than FPDW, the player advantage is only 1/5 as great (0.15% vs. 0.75%).

A better indicator for both recreational and serious non-pro players is the Attractiveness Quotient (AQ), calculated as player advantage times 1000 and divided by the Standard Deviation. The SD is the square root of the Variance.

The AQ for FPDW is 150, while the AQ for FPDB is only 32. Adding a 0.25% slow club cash rebate, the AQ for FPDW becomes 199 while the AQ for FPDB rises only to 79.

As far as I'm concerned DB is a good game only for gamblers or for very serious $1 players with a good size bankroll.

Dan

ยทยทยท

"testpro" <testpro@yahoo.com> wrote:

> Both games have close to the same variance. However, keep in mind

that these are single point numbers describing the overall paytables
and long-term game experience.

I'm not getting it. If variance tells me the size of the swing in my
bankroll, they are pretty similar I would guess that after 3000 hands
I am not more likely to be up (or down) on one game more than the
other. If however one of the games had twice the variance of the
other, it would appear to me to be more likely to have a more extreme
result after 3000 hands. Do simplistically I was thinking the more
similar the variance, the more similarity in the way each game would
treat my bankroll.

--

Dan Paymar, author of the book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor and Publisher of "Video Poker Times" newsletter
Web site at http://www.OptimumPlay.com

"Chance favors the prepared mind."
-- Louis Pasteur

As far as I'm concerned DB is a good game only for gamblers or for
very serious $1 players with a good size bankroll.

I hate DB, especially above quarters. I just don't like feeding
my C notes into the machine every 2 minutes. The 'rush' of getting
a good run of quads is nice, but feeding 20 C notes into a
$DB game just to win a $40 bonus is no fun. Same goes for 17 C notes,
which I also did. BTW, that terrific promo is now ancinet history.

So far this year, I have played lots of quarter and fifty-cent DB.
Various forms of KBJW get most of the rest of my action. FPDW is
running a distant 3rd in frequency and coin in and may soon fall to
4th.

However, I am not a 'gambler'. Since I moved here last winter,
I have encountered many situations where 10/7 DB is a good play
for the quarter and half-dollar player. Wnen I say "good play",
I am implying an hourly EV of $20 or more.

The triple play 10/7 DB at the GC/Orleans was such a play.

BTW, This has probably been discussed before, but it should
be stressed...

ER is a nice, handy measure, but hourly EV is really
the only useful measure when trying to decide what game to play.
It is a function of mailers, cashback, ER, and machine speed.

I don't normally cound food in this equation, but it is
reasonable to do so if you don't over-value its worth.

Of course, your bankroll, psychological bankroll, the game
denomination and game variance are also factors. Even the
impact of a tax form can be a factor. These can make a game
that has a somewhat high hourly EV become unattractive.
The best hourly EV games in town have these drawbacks. I
know several plays with a pretty high hourly EV , but I only
play one of them. These issues keep me from playing the
others.

QZ