vpFREE2 Forums

1 million hands at one game

#1

I play about 450,000 to 500,000 hands a year, Started playing FPDW in early 1997 and have never had a losing year. Have never been below $8k and $13K each year. This includes Cash back and Bounce Back, one double royal in 24 hours and minor drawings (nothing over $250). I have never been down as much as $1000. Yes the numbers work.

···

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#2

You say the numbers work but that at certain points you were down between 8K
and 13K, right?
If so, how did you recoup your losses??

Over the course of several years and several visits per year we are
EXTREMELY NEGATIVE.
For us to ever get positive it would require one heck of a positive trip or
a streak of positive trips that I just can't imagine.
Short term example:
    June trip, down $600
    July 4th trip, down another $1000 (no deuces, no royals, 1 quad aces on
DB)
    July 11th trip, even (first even trip in a year - only due to 1 quad
duece and 1 quad aces w/ kicker)

We've had about 3 trips since January prior to these above with similar loss
patterns.
We probably average $500 loss per trip on gambling only, even at the .25
level playing between FPDW or FPDB or w/ CB and promos 100%+ JOB. With at
least 10 trips per year that's a painful loss each year.
To recover that there would either have to be a $5000 positive trip or
perhaps 10 positive trips in the area of $500.

Isn't it possible that if you start out too negative there's just no way to
recoup, even with streaks of positiveness. Think of the stock market...

···

-----Original Message-----
  From: kellypkjoe [mailto:kellypk…@…com]
  Sent: Saturday, July 12, 2003 12:20 PM
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  I play about 450,000 to 500,000 hands a year, Started playing FPDW in
early 1997 and have never had a losing year. Have never been below $8k and
$13K each year. This includes Cash back and Bounce Back, one double royal
in 24 hours and minor drawings (nothing over $250). I have never been down
as much as $1000. Yes the numbers work.

  _______________________________________________
  No banners. No pop-ups. No kidding.
  Introducing My Way - http://www.myway.com

  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

        Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
              ADVERTISEMENT

  vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga

  Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

Richard. We have done this for five plus years. Up until this year we
were still ahead for the five years. Then this year we crashed very badly.
At one point we were down about $12,000 playing mostly single line and
triple play .25. But about $5,000 of the loss was from trying to move up to
dollars. We went back to quarters and playing only when positive with cash
back, etc. When we saw you in Las Vegas we were still down over $10,000 for
the year. Over the past three weeks we have done okay and are now down only
about $7,000. I think there is hope. That is a $5,000 change from our
worst point of the year. We are still not close to positive BUT it is
progress. (Amazingly enough we are NOT winners on the over 100% games but
on the close to 100% games that go over 100% with cash back. Cash back is
king....)

···

----- Original Message -----
From: "Richard Boston" <rboston@objectd.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 12:20 PM
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

You say the numbers work but that at certain points you were down between

8K

and 13K, right?
If so, how did you recoup your losses??

Over the course of several years and several visits per year we are
EXTREMELY NEGATIVE.
For us to ever get positive it would require one heck of a positive trip

or

a streak of positive trips that I just can't imagine.
Short term example:
    June trip, down $600
    July 4th trip, down another $1000 (no deuces, no royals, 1 quad aces

on

DB)
    July 11th trip, even (first even trip in a year - only due to 1 quad
duece and 1 quad aces w/ kicker)

We've had about 3 trips since January prior to these above with similar

loss

patterns.
We probably average $500 loss per trip on gambling only, even at the .25
level playing between FPDW or FPDB or w/ CB and promos 100%+ JOB. With at
least 10 trips per year that's a painful loss each year.
To recover that there would either have to be a $5000 positive trip or
perhaps 10 positive trips in the area of $500.

Isn't it possible that if you start out too negative there's just no way

to

recoup, even with streaks of positiveness. Think of the stock market...

  -----Original Message-----
  From: kellypkjoe [mailto:kellypk…@…com]
  Sent: Saturday, July 12, 2003 12:20 PM
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  I play about 450,000 to 500,000 hands a year, Started playing FPDW in
early 1997 and have never had a losing year. Have never been below $8k

and

$13K each year. This includes Cash back and Bounce Back, one double

royal

in 24 hours and minor drawings (nothing over $250). I have never been

down

as much as $1000. Yes the numbers work.

  _______________________________________________
  No banners. No pop-ups. No kidding.
  Introducing My Way - http://www.myway.com

  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

        Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
              ADVERTISEMENT

  vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/

#4

This is good news and creates hope.

We're tired of being on the wrong side of the bell curve.

Been playing VP for about 5 years seriously and between 2 people we don't
have 10 royals.
Been playing FPDW for about 2 years and I can count on one hand how many
quad deuces I have. The wife has done better in that department.

Regardless of the game being positive or not, I think we're definitely on
the short end of the royal side and probably so on the deuces side too.

Can someone remind me the supposed frequency of the quad deuces in DW. Every
how many hands?

thanks

···

-----Original Message-----
  From: Ednar [mailto:ed…@…com]
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 11:01 AM
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Cc: Ginny Thorpe
  Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  Richard. We have done this for five plus years. Up until this year we
  were still ahead for the five years. Then this year we crashed very
badly.
  At one point we were down about $12,000 playing mostly single line and
  triple play .25. But about $5,000 of the loss was from trying to move up
to
  dollars. We went back to quarters and playing only when positive with
cash
  back, etc. When we saw you in Las Vegas we were still down over $10,000
for
  the year. Over the past three weeks we have done okay and are now down
only
  about $7,000. I think there is hope. That is a $5,000 change from our
  worst point of the year. We are still not close to positive BUT it is
  progress. (Amazingly enough we are NOT winners on the over 100% games
but
  on the close to 100% games that go over 100% with cash back. Cash back is
  king....)

  ----- Original Message -----
  From: "Richard Boston" <rboston@objectd.com>
  To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 12:20 PM
  Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  > You say the numbers work but that at certain points you were down
between
  8K
  > and 13K, right?
  > If so, how did you recoup your losses??
  >
  > Over the course of several years and several visits per year we are
  > EXTREMELY NEGATIVE.
  > For us to ever get positive it would require one heck of a positive trip
  or
  > a streak of positive trips that I just can't imagine.
  > Short term example:
  > June trip, down $600
  > July 4th trip, down another $1000 (no deuces, no royals, 1 quad aces
  on
  > DB)
  > July 11th trip, even (first even trip in a year - only due to 1 quad
  > duece and 1 quad aces w/ kicker)
  >
  > We've had about 3 trips since January prior to these above with similar
  loss
  > patterns.
  > We probably average $500 loss per trip on gambling only, even at the .25
  > level playing between FPDW or FPDB or w/ CB and promos 100%+ JOB. With
at
  > least 10 trips per year that's a painful loss each year.
  > To recover that there would either have to be a $5000 positive trip or
  > perhaps 10 positive trips in the area of $500.
  >
  > Isn't it possible that if you start out too negative there's just no way
  to
  > recoup, even with streaks of positiveness. Think of the stock market…
  >
  > -----Original Message-----
  > From: kellypkjoe [mailto:kellypk…@…com]
  > Sent: Saturday, July 12, 2003 12:20 PM
  > To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  > Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game
  >
  >
  > I play about 450,000 to 500,000 hands a year, Started playing FPDW in
  > early 1997 and have never had a losing year. Have never been below $8k
  and
  > $13K each year. This includes Cash back and Bounce Back, one double
  royal
  > in 24 hours and minor drawings (nothing over $250). I have never been
  down
  > as much as $1000. Yes the numbers work.
  >
  > _______________________________________________
  > No banners. No pop-ups. No kidding.
  > Introducing My Way - http://www.myway.com
  >
  >
  > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
  >
  >
  > Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
  > ADVERTISEMENT
  >
  >
  >
  >
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  >
  >
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  >
  >
  > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
  >
  >
  >
  > vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga
  >
  >
  > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
  >
  >
  >

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Some interesting stats via WinPoker:
Without royals and without quad deuces, the return is only 95.4% (hopefully
I did this right)
So, I've been playing at this return for a couple weeks now since I've
gotten neither.

On FPDW it indicates quad deuces nearly every 4900 hands.
We've played about 28,800 in two trips with half of that on FPDW.
Between two people doing this we've seen only one quad deuces.

I guess we're pretty short on the deuces side eh?? by about 2 of them.
Those two would have cut our losses nearly in half.

I agree with everyone that if the numbers actually held up then we'd
probably be doing quite well.
I guess I'm just waiting for the numbers to hold up and bring us back into
the realm of positive.

I also agree with Ednar that the cashback is a definite plus.
Comparing MSS at .1 (even with 2X or 3X points, max of .3%) with Hilton's
.55%, I'd rather have the higher CB and possibly a less positive game, as
long as the total ends up over 100%.

The CB is guaranteed and can be retrieved immediately whereas playing DW and
DB, you are hoping that the numbers hold up for you !!

···

-----Original Message-----
  From: Richard Boston [mailto:rbos…@…com]
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 11:23 AM
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  This is good news and creates hope.

  We're tired of being on the wrong side of the bell curve.

  Been playing VP for about 5 years seriously and between 2 people we don't
  have 10 royals.
  Been playing FPDW for about 2 years and I can count on one hand how many
  quad deuces I have. The wife has done better in that department.

  Regardless of the game being positive or not, I think we're definitely on
  the short end of the royal side and probably so on the deuces side too.

  Can someone remind me the supposed frequency of the quad deuces in DW.
Every
  how many hands?

  thanks
    -----Original Message-----
    From: Ednar [mailto:ed…@…com]
    Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 11:01 AM
    To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
    Cc: Ginny Thorpe
    Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

    Richard. We have done this for five plus years. Up until this year we
    were still ahead for the five years. Then this year we crashed very
  badly.
    At one point we were down about $12,000 playing mostly single line and
    triple play .25. But about $5,000 of the loss was from trying to move
up
  to
    dollars. We went back to quarters and playing only when positive with
  cash
    back, etc. When we saw you in Las Vegas we were still down over $10,000
  for
    the year. Over the past three weeks we have done okay and are now down
  only
    about $7,000. I think there is hope. That is a $5,000 change from our
    worst point of the year. We are still not close to positive BUT it is
    progress. (Amazingly enough we are NOT winners on the over 100% games
  but
    on the close to 100% games that go over 100% with cash back. Cash back
is
    king....)

    ----- Original Message -----
    From: "Richard Boston" <rboston@objectd.com>
    To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
    Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 12:20 PM
    Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

    > You say the numbers work but that at certain points you were down
  between
    8K
    > and 13K, right?
    > If so, how did you recoup your losses??
    >
    > Over the course of several years and several visits per year we are
    > EXTREMELY NEGATIVE.
    > For us to ever get positive it would require one heck of a positive
trip
    or
    > a streak of positive trips that I just can't imagine.
    > Short term example:
    > June trip, down $600
    > July 4th trip, down another $1000 (no deuces, no royals, 1 quad
aces
    on
    > DB)
    > July 11th trip, even (first even trip in a year - only due to 1
quad
    > duece and 1 quad aces w/ kicker)
    >
    > We've had about 3 trips since January prior to these above with
similar
    loss
    > patterns.
    > We probably average $500 loss per trip on gambling only, even at the
.25
    > level playing between FPDW or FPDB or w/ CB and promos 100%+ JOB. With
  at
    > least 10 trips per year that's a painful loss each year.
    > To recover that there would either have to be a $5000 positive trip or
    > perhaps 10 positive trips in the area of $500.
    >
    > Isn't it possible that if you start out too negative there's just no
way
    to
    > recoup, even with streaks of positiveness. Think of the stock
market…
    >
    > -----Original Message-----
    > From: kellypkjoe [mailto:kellypk…@…com]
    > Sent: Saturday, July 12, 2003 12:20 PM
    > To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
    > Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game
    >
    >
    > I play about 450,000 to 500,000 hands a year, Started playing FPDW
in
    > early 1997 and have never had a losing year. Have never been below
$8k
    and
    > $13K each year. This includes Cash back and Bounce Back, one double
    royal
    > in 24 hours and minor drawings (nothing over $250). I have never been
    down
    > as much as $1000. Yes the numbers work.
    >
    > _______________________________________________
    > No banners. No pop-ups. No kidding.
    > Introducing My Way - http://www.myway.com
    >
    >
    > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
    >
    >
    > Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
    > ADVERTISEMENT
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga
    >
    >
    > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
    >
    >
    > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
    >
    >
    >
    > vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga
    >
    >
    > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
  http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
    >
    >
    >

          Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
                ADVERTISEMENT

    vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga

    Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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              ADVERTISEMENT

  vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

Remember , when evaluating cash back at MSS you MUST include the value of the scratch cards which as about 0.5%, which with the actual cashback is equivalent to the Hilton.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: Richard Boston
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 2:49 PM
  Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  I also agree with Ednar that the cashback is a definite plus.
  Comparing MSS at .1 (even with 2X or 3X points, max of .3%) with Hilton's
  .55%, I'd rather have the higher CB and possibly a less positive game, as
  long as the total ends up over 100%.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

But that's a theoretical cashback if you get 4oak.
If you are in a serious drought, especially on DW, you may not get any
scratch cards.
That happen to me recently where one day I hit a bunch.
The next day playing DW I got 2 while playing several hours. Lots of wild
4oak but few straight up.

I'd still consider having the higher cashback that is essentially guaranteed
and a direct percentage of your play rather than relying on the outcome.

···

-----Original Message-----
  From: Albert Pearson [mailto:a-…@…ca]
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 1:54 PM
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  Remember , when evaluating cash back at MSS you MUST include the value of
the scratch cards which as about 0.5%, which with the actual cashback is
equivalent to the Hilton.

  Regards
  A.P.
    ----- Original Message -----
    From: Richard Boston
    To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
    Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 2:49 PM
    Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

    I also agree with Ednar that the cashback is a definite plus.
    Comparing MSS at .1 (even with 2X or 3X points, max of .3%) with
Hilton's
    .55%, I'd rather have the higher CB and possibly a less positive game,
as
    long as the total ends up over 100%.

  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

        Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
              ADVERTISEMENT

  vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga

  Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

Yes it's possible, that's why we call it gambling.
I believe that if you start off with an extremely long losing streak, you are less likely to reach the long term average that is always talked about.
Conversely if you start off with an extremely long winning streak, you are more likely to come out ahead of the game in the long term.

Now, if you combine the 2 players results, you achieve the long term expectation.

I wish everybody would stop worrying about the long term numbers.
They are strictly EXPECTATIONS not reality. They tell you what you are likely to achieve, not what you will achieve.
The thing for most of us to remember is that it is a game , an entertainment to enjoy .
Play the best games that give you pleasure and excitement.
Play them as well as you can.
Take advantage of the freebies that you are entitled to.
Play within your means.
If you add up all of the values for your entertainment, vacations, food ,lodgings, excitement etc., you are guaranteed to be a winner.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: Richard Boston
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 1:20 PM
  Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  Isn't it possible that if you start out too negative there's just no way to
  recoup, even with streaks of positiveness. Think of the stock market...

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#9

You are correct. If I was comparing the 2 properties and the only difference was the cashback versus the scratch cards , I too would go for the guaranteed cash back.

The scratch cards, should not be ignored though. In your example you had a good day and then a bad day, if you totaled all your cards over the 2 days, you may well have been right on expectations, and remember, for those that like to gamble at every opportunity the scratch cards can sometimes hit 5k.

Just one thing though, when evaluating a casino you should attach a value to all things received, and then come up with your choice. The answers will differ depending on the individual.
I believe that for the quarter player, the $25 potential difference in a days cashback is a very small part of your vacation cost.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: Richard Boston
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 5:00 PM
  Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  But that's a theoretical cashback if you get 4oak.
  If you are in a serious drought, especially on DW, you may not get any
  scratch cards.
  That happen to me recently where one day I hit a bunch.
  The next day playing DW I got 2 while playing several hours. Lots of wild
  4oak but few straight up.

  I'd still consider having the higher cashback that is essentially guaranteed
  and a direct percentage of your play rather than relying on the outcome.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10

Two points on that:

1) It is an education and an understanding thing. We keep losing and so many
people keep talking about how well they are doing playing 100% games. It's
my job to explain to my wife the possitilities and that we may actually be
positive one day if we keep playing positive games. But it appears that if
we keep playing the positive games our bankroll which has gone from 7K down
to 3K will totally go away before getting "a big score".

2) It's very frustrating when it comes across from others that the positive
side is EVERYONE's reality but ours. EDNAR and I spoke about this a little
and there are tons of people who talk about being positive without
discussing how long it may have taken to dig themselves out of a hole. Also,
you see so many reports like the one recently posted about the guy who went
to the Palms.
EXCERPT:
I just this evening got back in the 'Burgh from LV. I hit THREE royals the
first day at the Palms. The second day I was dealt the Aces on the DDBL five
play, three had the kicker. The most fun of all was Friday night at Mandalay
Bay. While waiting for my wife to come out of the restroom (we were on our
way to see Mamma Mia), I put five bucks into a .25, two coin machine and hit
the progressive jackpot on the third pull. I LOVE VEGAS! Combine this trip
with May, six royals!
We've NEVER even come close to experiencing this. Shoot, we've gotten less
than 10 royals in over 50 trips in five years. So, hearing this constantly
you're wondering what the heck you are doing wrong. You're playing 100%
games. You're practicing on WinPoker, you use strategy cards. You play w/
promos and n times point days but still go home a loser every trip.
People comment on the boards that they'll just keep playing because they
know it's positive VP and eventually they will come out ahead.

···

-----Original Message-----

  From: Albert Pearson [mailto:a-…@…ca]
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 2:07 PM
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  Yes it's possible, that's why we call it gambling.
  I believe that if you start off with an extremely long losing streak, you
are less likely to reach the long term average that is always talked about.
  Conversely if you start off with an extremely long winning streak, you are
more likely to come out ahead of the game in the long term.

  Now, if you combine the 2 players results, you achieve the long term
expectation.

  I wish everybody would stop worrying about the long term numbers.
  They are strictly EXPECTATIONS not reality. They tell you what you are
likely to achieve, not what you will achieve.
  The thing for most of us to remember is that it is a game , an
entertainment to enjoy .
  Play the best games that give you pleasure and excitement.
  Play them as well as you can.
  Take advantage of the freebies that you are entitled to.
  Play within your means.
  If you add up all of the values for your entertainment, vacations, food
,lodgings, excitement etc., you are guaranteed to be a winner.

  Regards
  A.P.
    ----- Original Message -----
    From: Richard Boston
    To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
    Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 1:20 PM
    Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

    Isn't it possible that if you start out too negative there's just no way
to
    recoup, even with streaks of positiveness. Think of the stock market...

  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

        Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
              ADVERTISEMENT

  vpFREE Links: http://tinyurl.com/a7ga

  Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

I can certainly empathize with your feelings . You have been unlucky.
For myself , the only thing I can say with total certainty is that I am doing better now,
than in the old days when I gambled on everything, and was a virtual guaranteed loser almost every trip.
You seem to have the education thing down pat, and like I said the understanding is that everything is a potential not a guarantee.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: Richard Boston
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 5:23 PM
  Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  Two points on that:

  1) It is an education and an understanding thing. We keep losing and so many
  people keep talking about how well they are doing playing 100% games. It's
  my job to explain to my wife the possitilities and that we may actually be
  positive one day if we keep playing positive games. But it appears that if
  we keep playing the positive games our bankroll which has gone from 7K down
  to 3K will totally go away before getting "a big score".

  2) It's very frustrating when it comes across from others that the positive
  side is EVERYONE's reality but ours. EDNAR and I spoke about this a little
  and there are tons of people who talk about being positive without
  discussing how long it may have taken to dig themselves out of a hole. Also,
  you see so many reports like the one recently posted about the guy who went
  to the Palms.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#12

Just to throw in my two cents, once I studied and practiced FPDB, I
rattled off three straight winning years. There were some nerve
testing peaks and valleys, but in the end, darned if the profit
wasn't almost exactly 0.17%! Keep the faith.

I can certainly empathize with your feelings . You have been

unlucky.

For myself , the only thing I can say with total certainty is that

I am doing better now,

than in the old days when I gambled on everything, and was a

virtual guaranteed loser almost every trip.

You seem to have the education thing down pat, and like I said the

understanding is that everything is a potential not a guarantee.

Regards
A.P.
  From: Richard Boston
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 5:23 PM
  Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  Two points on that:

  1) It is an education and an understanding thing. We keep losing

and so many

  people keep talking about how well they are doing playing 100%

games. It's

  my job to explain to my wife the possitilities and that we may

actually be

  positive one day if we keep playing positive games. But it

appears that if

  we keep playing the positive games our bankroll which has gone

from 7K down

  to 3K will totally go away before getting "a big score".

  2) It's very frustrating when it comes across from others that

the positive

  side is EVERYONE's reality but ours. EDNAR and I spoke about this

a little

  and there are tons of people who talk about being positive without
  discussing how long it may have taken to dig themselves out of a

hole. Also,

  you see so many reports like the one recently posted about the

guy who went

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Albert Pearson" <a-p@s...> wrote:

  ----- Original Message -----
  to the Palms.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#13

Richard Boston asked:

Can someone remind me the supposed frequency of the quad deuces in DW. Every
how many hands?

Dean Zamzow gave me this info-

Here are the numbers requested (rounded)

Dealt cards:
1) Dealt 4 deuces - 1:54,145
2) Dealt 3 deuces - 1:576
3) Dealt 2 deuces - 1:25
4) Dealt 1 deuce - 1:3.3

Redeal only:
5) Held 0 cards, redraw 5 and get 4 deuces - 1:35,673
6) Held 1 deuce, redraw 4 and get remaining 3 deuces - 1:4054
7) Held 2 deuces, redraw 3 and get remaining 2 deuces - 1:360
8) Held 3 deuces, redraw 2 and get remaining 1 deuce - 1:23.5

(Dean, thanks once again)
Dennis

#14

One day I (actually we) played triple play NSUD for 13 hours straight at
over 600 hph. No deuces, no royals. Then within 1 hour I hit deuces three
times and 1/2 hour later a Royal. I went from being down $1320 for that
session to up $65. A $1385 turn around in 1.5 hours. It happens. This is
another reason why bankroll is so important. If we had run out of money at
13 hours we never would have recovered. We were determined to play through
the "slump". I need to reiterate that this was a negative game but we had a
cash back expectation making it positive. Plus on this ocassion we had
another reason to keep playing.

I believe that most players are overplaying their bankroll. When they hit a
bad spell (bad short term variance) they cannot continue to play and have no
hope of recovery. Then it often turns into "gambling" and there is little
semblance to advantage VP. Unless they get very LUCKY they are dead. I
have seen people raise their bets, play more lines, increase denominations,
etc. Although this could be done if you had a sufficient bankroll most
people do not and when they start going up etc they just lose more faster,
increasing their losses. I know many of the famous gurus of VP insist on
the need for proper bankroll. I believe even people who do not necessarily
support the mathematical side of VP insist on its importance.

Cash back is king and playing with a suitable bankroll (real and
psychological) is queen.

I will be open and share some real numbers with you.

We have immediate access to a bankroll of $20,000. But if I lost $5,000 of
it in a short time I would be bothered. And this year I am "bothered" since
I was earlier at about $27,000. We play most of the time with a .5% to 1%
edge. I need a larger bankroll than someone who has ready access to edges
from 1% to 2%. When I play progessives I need more. Even though I could
perhaps play single line dollars with my bankroll I can't mentally handle
the downswings. We both used to play triple plays but until the bankroll
swings upwards usually only one of us plays triples and the other plays
single lines.

···

----- Original Message -----
From: "Richard Boston" <rboston@objectd.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 1:49 PM
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

Some interesting stats via WinPoker:
Without royals and without quad deuces, the return is only 95.4%

(hopefully

I did this right)
So, I've been playing at this return for a couple weeks now since I've
gotten neither.

On FPDW it indicates quad deuces nearly every 4900 hands.
We've played about 28,800 in two trips with half of that on FPDW.
Between two people doing this we've seen only one quad deuces.

I guess we're pretty short on the deuces side eh?? by about 2 of them.
Those two would have cut our losses nearly in half.

I agree with everyone that if the numbers actually held up then we'd
probably be doing quite well.
I guess I'm just waiting for the numbers to hold up and bring us back into
the realm of positive.

I also agree with Ednar that the cashback is a definite plus.
Comparing MSS at .1 (even with 2X or 3X points, max of .3%) with Hilton's
.55%, I'd rather have the higher CB and possibly a less positive game, as
long as the total ends up over 100%.

The CB is guaranteed and can be retrieved immediately whereas playing DW

and

DB, you are hoping that the numbers hold up for you !!

#15

AP is right on. This is not a guaranteed "job" or a guaranteed way to make
money. It is supposed to be fun. When it stops being fun, I quit. I am
only going to play within my means and not feel driven to have to do this.
Right now we are jumping on every promotion etc that makes sense to us. WHY
Because it is fun and it is within our means to do so.

This has been an excellent hobby for my wife and me. We have had five years
of over $40,000 in comps for a total expenditure to date of less than $3000.
A couple months ago it had cost us over $5,000 for this amount of fun. But
it was still an excellent bargain. This would only cover one trip to Disney
World and we have done it for five years. This year alone we have had 76
free rooms!!!!

If I had to do this for a living it wouldn't work. But that is not my
intent.

···

----- Original Message -----
From: "Albert Pearson" <a-p@sympatico.ca>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 4:07 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

Yes it's possible, that's why we call it gambling.
I believe that if you start off with an extremely long losing streak, you

are less likely to reach the long term average that is always talked about.

Conversely if you start off with an extremely long winning streak, you are

more likely to come out ahead of the game in the long term.

Now, if you combine the 2 players results, you achieve the long term

expectation.

I wish everybody would stop worrying about the long term numbers.
They are strictly EXPECTATIONS not reality. They tell you what you are

likely to achieve, not what you will achieve.

The thing for most of us to remember is that it is a game , an

entertainment to enjoy .

Play the best games that give you pleasure and excitement.
Play them as well as you can.
Take advantage of the freebies that you are entitled to.
Play within your means.
If you add up all of the values for your entertainment, vacations, food

,lodgings, excitement etc., you are guaranteed to be a winner.

Regards
A.P.

#16

Yeah. That is why I have been willing to discuss the rotten trips and bad
times. Perhaps some see it as whining but I want to share the other side.
I think the Great trips get alot of press because it sucks and hurts
sometimes to talk about the bad ones. People need to see that this ain't
"perfect". Although long term expectations may be positive there is no
guarantee that it will happen.

My wife and I play about $1 million coin in per year. (This year will be
far more) We have had three dealt Royals all on multiline machines. We
have had some great runs, but more often things have been bad. The longer
we play the more we get the chance to see every side.

I play with the expectation that playing with the edge puts the game in my
favor but does not guarantee that I will win. I have the edge but no
guarantee. I may never win again but with the edge in my favor that is not
the mathematical expectation.

···

----- Original Message -----
From: "Richard Boston" <rboston@objectd.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 4:23 PM
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

Two points on that:

1) It is an education and an understanding thing. We keep losing and so

many

people keep talking about how well they are doing playing 100% games. It's
my job to explain to my wife the possitilities and that we may actually be
positive one day if we keep playing positive games. But it appears that if
we keep playing the positive games our bankroll which has gone from 7K

down

to 3K will totally go away before getting "a big score".

2) It's very frustrating when it comes across from others that the

positive

side is EVERYONE's reality but ours. EDNAR and I spoke about this a little
and there are tons of people who talk about being positive without
discussing how long it may have taken to dig themselves out of a hole.

Also,

you see so many reports like the one recently posted about the guy who

went

to the Palms.
EXCERPT:
I just this evening got back in the 'Burgh from LV. I hit THREE royals the
first day at the Palms. The second day I was dealt the Aces on the DDBL

five

play, three had the kicker. The most fun of all was Friday night at

Mandalay

Bay. While waiting for my wife to come out of the restroom (we were on our
way to see Mamma Mia), I put five bucks into a .25, two coin machine and

hit

the progressive jackpot on the third pull. I LOVE VEGAS! Combine this trip
with May, six royals!
We've NEVER even come close to experiencing this. Shoot, we've gotten less
than 10 royals in over 50 trips in five years. So, hearing this constantly
you're wondering what the heck you are doing wrong. You're playing 100%
games. You're practicing on WinPoker, you use strategy cards. You play w/
promos and n times point days but still go home a loser every trip.
People comment on the boards that they'll just keep playing because they
know it's positive VP and eventually they will come out ahead.

#17

This year alone we have had 76

free rooms!!!!

What do you do with the rooms. Aren't you a local?

DWK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Ednar" <ednar@k...> wrote:

#18

It's nice to hear reality every once in a while.

Thanks !!

···

-----Original Message-----
  From: Ednar [mailto:ed…@…com]
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 5:57 PM
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  One day I (actually we) played triple play NSUD for 13 hours straight at
  over 600 hph. No deuces, no royals. Then within 1 hour I hit deuces
three
  times and 1/2 hour later a Royal. I went from being down $1320 for that
  session to up $65. A $1385 turn around in 1.5 hours. It happens. This
is
  another reason why bankroll is so important. If we had run out of money
at
  13 hours we never would have recovered. We were determined to play
through
  the "slump". I need to reiterate that this was a negative game but we had
a
  cash back expectation making it positive. Plus on this ocassion we had
  another reason to keep playing.

  I believe that most players are overplaying their bankroll. When they hit
a
  bad spell (bad short term variance) they cannot continue to play and have
no
  hope of recovery. Then it often turns into "gambling" and there is little
  semblance to advantage VP. Unless they get very LUCKY they are dead. I
  have seen people raise their bets, play more lines, increase
denominations,
  etc. Although this could be done if you had a sufficient bankroll most
  people do not and when they start going up etc they just lose more faster,
  increasing their losses. I know many of the famous gurus of VP insist on
  the need for proper bankroll. I believe even people who do not
necessarily
  support the mathematical side of VP insist on its importance.

  Cash back is king and playing with a suitable bankroll (real and
  psychological) is queen.

  I will be open and share some real numbers with you.

  We have immediate access to a bankroll of $20,000. But if I lost $5,000
of
  it in a short time I would be bothered. And this year I am "bothered"
since
  I was earlier at about $27,000. We play most of the time with a .5% to 1%
  edge. I need a larger bankroll than someone who has ready access to edges
  from 1% to 2%. When I play progessives I need more. Even though I could
  perhaps play single line dollars with my bankroll I can't mentally handle
  the downswings. We both used to play triple plays but until the bankroll
  swings upwards usually only one of us plays triples and the other plays
  single lines.

  ----- Original Message -----
  From: "Richard Boston" <rboston@objectd.com>
  To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
  Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 1:49 PM
  Subject: RE: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

  > Some interesting stats via WinPoker:
  > Without royals and without quad deuces, the return is only 95.4%
  (hopefully
  > I did this right)
  > So, I've been playing at this return for a couple weeks now since I've
  > gotten neither.
  >
  > On FPDW it indicates quad deuces nearly every 4900 hands.
  > We've played about 28,800 in two trips with half of that on FPDW.
  > Between two people doing this we've seen only one quad deuces.
  >
  > I guess we're pretty short on the deuces side eh?? by about 2 of them.
  > Those two would have cut our losses nearly in half.
  >
  > I agree with everyone that if the numbers actually held up then we'd
  > probably be doing quite well.
  > I guess I'm just waiting for the numbers to hold up and bring us back
into
  > the realm of positive.
  >
  > I also agree with Ednar that the cashback is a definite plus.
  > Comparing MSS at .1 (even with 2X or 3X points, max of .3%) with
Hilton's
  > .55%, I'd rather have the higher CB and possibly a less positive game,
as
  > long as the total ends up over 100%.
  >
  > The CB is guaranteed and can be retrieved immediately whereas playing DW
  and
  > DB, you are hoping that the numbers hold up for you !!
  >

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#19

NOPE. I live in Indiana. Over 100 miles away from the boats near Gary.

···

----- Original Message -----
From: "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 8:20 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Ednar" <ednar@k...> wrote:
  This year alone we have had 76
> free rooms!!!!

What do you do with the rooms. Aren't you a local?

DWK

#20

NOPE. I live in Indiana. Over 100 miles away from the boats near

Gary.

To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 15, 2003 8:20 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 1 million hands at one game

> This year alone we have had 76
> > free rooms!!!!
>
>
> What do you do with the rooms. Aren't you a local?
>
> DWK

Thanks, Then the room comps definitely can be figured into the
return.

Good Luck

DWK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Ednar" <ednar@k...> wrote:

----- Original Message -----
From: "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@y...>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Ednar" <ednar@k...> wrote: