From: "tomflush" <tomflush@nyc.rr.com>
PS - if you are the casino owner - you spread the word about your
machines hoping for a full house of money loaded pro's and semi's.
- monitoring the hold 3X a day. Using trend analysis, and most
likely you will be ahead the first couple of days until the law of
average royals amd EV takes over. When the trend indicates a
downward pattern - you put a sign on every machine - 'this machine
will be set down for maintainence in 1 hour' lowering the pay
schedule to NSUD. It's the old 'bait and switch' - We'll see if
thats his plan !
I believe the above is saying: even when someone plays FPDW
perfectly, it's most likely that the casino will *initially* make
money from the player. That's because the most likely scenario is
that many hours will pass before the player hits a royal, & he'll
probably be losing money till he does so.
And it's true that if I have an opportunity to play FPDW for one hour
only, the most likely result is that I'll lose. But the small
possibility of a big win more than compensates. From the casino's
viewpoint it's the exact opposite. If they make FPDW available to
perfect players for a brief enough time (on a limited number of
machines), their most likely result may be a small profit. But the
small possibility of a big loss (if Royals appear earlier than
expected) more than balances it out.
And regarding average Royals... if a casino attracts better players
to its FPDW machines, the result will be *fewer* Royals. The experts
will be less likely to make the crazy plays that tourists often make
(drawing to an AQ suited with no deuces, etc, etc) that result in
higher Royal frequency. An expert will be more likely to see & draw
to an inside straight, whereas the tourist will toss that measly draw
in order to hold the lone Jack of Spades that just might fill up.
Sort of interesting, maybe paradoxical, huh? If the casino gets
overrun with expert FPDW players, the casino's loss won't come from
an explosion of Royals, but more likely from an explosion of those
thrilling 2-to-1 payoffs when the inside straights come through.
Stuart (RandomStu)
sresnick2@attbi.com
http://home.attbi.com/~sresnick2/mypage.htm