Harrah's too. Oh, well
$1 Dueces have been removed from Silver Legacy
Talk about imperfect timing...I made reservations just last night to
go up there next weekend and cancelled them this morning.
When you snooze, you lose...Thanks for the info...I would have hated
to go up there and not find them.
Don the Dentist
sounds like it was a casino mistake, a couple of royals hit sending
the machine hold negative and the casino figured out their mistake
and corrected it, or it could be they read it off the casino database
here since it's open to the whole world, not just members of this
group
moral of the story?
next time do like they do in jersey, mums da woid, yous didn't see
nuttin, capish?
to the casino database admin: isn't it better to just post stable
plays, rather than have to be constantly adding and subtracting plays
that aren't going to last?
Which means the .05 100 play 9-6 JoB are the best play at SL. CD
What mistake? You think they'd change the denom of a bank of 14 or 20
machines just because one or two hit more than one royal every 38,000
hands or so? I'll bet others hit way less than once every 38,000.
What could they read off this database? "Sounds like a good play, I'm
going to the Silver Legacy to check it out." Wouldn't this be
GOODNESS to a casino manager?
or you think the VP casino manager got informed, "Hey Clyde, it sez
here ya got some full-pay video poker!" Clyde slaps his own forehead,
mutters, "Aw Geez, I trusted the darn salesman; better get the slot
techs out there to switch them machines again."
It was a well-planned publicity scheme. And a cover for taking away
slow 25 cent FPDW Progressives - 102+% payback machines that ALSO
were never full, and existed for more than a year.
As far as keeping plays secret, we've already hashed that one to
death on other threads. The moral was do what you wanna do. In this
case at the Silver, the pre-Christmas vpfree "publicity" didn't cause
any run on these machines. They were almost empty at least 8 hours
per day Jan 1-5, that I witnessed.
And I don't know as if there ARE any full-pay STABLE VP plays any
more.
ALSO: from the post in vpFree-Reno, they took off the 50 cent FPDW
option also.
~MARK P.
sounds like it was a casino mistake, a couple of royals hit sending
the machine hold negative and the casino figured out their mistake
and corrected it, or it could be they read it off the casino
database
here since it's open to the whole world, not just members of this
groupmoral of the story?
next time do like they do in jersey, mums da woid, yous didn't see
nuttin, capish?to the casino database admin: isn't it better to just post stable
plays, rather than have to be constantly adding and subtracting
plays
--- crazydon wrote:
Which means the .05 100 play 9-6 JoB are the best play at SL. CD
or (8) .25 FPJW
or (22) .25 FPDW
or (4) $1 10/7 DB or (9) .25 10/7 DB
depends on your definition of best. 9/6 100-play JoB is less than
100%, whereas these other games are over 100%.
I've warmed up to the (16) .25 8/5 BP Progs, for some reason (could
be my '04 Royal on them last week) They paid me off better than the
full-pay machines this particular trip.
~(crazy)Mark
or you think the VP casino manager got informed, "Hey Clyde, it sez
here ya got some full-pay video poker!" Clyde slaps his own
forehead,
mutters, "Aw Geez, I trusted the darn salesman; better get the
slot
techs out there to switch them machines again."
Laughing out loud
M, excuse, I'd heard only +s were them lonely ducks. CD
···
- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mark" <mark_my_words_again@y...> wrote:
--- crazydon wrote:
> Which means the .05 100 play 9-6 JoB are the best play at SL. CDor (8) .25 FPJW
or (22) .25 FPDW
or (4) $1 10/7 DB or (9) .25 10/7 DBdepends on your definition of best. 9/6 100-play JoB is less than
100%, whereas these other games are over 100%.
I've warmed up to the (16) .25 8/5 BP Progs, for some reason (could
be my '04 Royal on them last week) They paid me off better than the
full-pay machines this particular trip.~(crazy)Mark
sounds like it was a casino mistake, a couple of royals hit sending
the machine hold negative and the casino figured out their mistake
and corrected it, or it could be they read it off the casino database
here since it's open to the whole world, not just members of this
group
I strongly believe that the existence of the FPDW at Silver
Legacy was simply a mistake by the slot management team.
When the Silver Legacy opened it had $ FPDW galore. They
lasted for quite a while but eventually were yanked. Later
they had $5 FPJW and it even had a slow RF progressive
too! But alas, about 6 years ago almost everything
disappeared :-(. I was surprised that the .25 FPDW
progressive(s) survived as long as they did.
At least, I did get to play the new $ FPDW a little bit. I would
like to thank the person who posted that, even though it
certainly hastened their demise not to mention starting a
controversy on this group. I was going to Reno anyway
but may not have found them otherwise. Sadly, I never hit a
RF or sufficient 2's to come out ahead :-(.
One player hit two RF's within a very few minutes, but
refused to share with those who weren't so fortunate ;-).
G'luck,
Gamb00lin F00l(s)
yes that could be. Next time somebody finds these super plays a better
description would be:
"In that mining casino - you find some unexpected treasures in 25C/50C/$1.
Quack Quack. "
The play will last longer. I reported the full pay deuces at Harrahs first,
in code. It lasted a couple of months till somebody spilled the beans in
English. Dont forget, pros will email you privately for the location . Dont
give them it , it also can be casino lurkers.
regards...Tom
···
----- Original Message -----
From: "testpro" <testpro@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Friday, January 09, 2004 5:27 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: $1 Dueces have been removed from Silver Legacy
>
> or you think the VP casino manager got informed, "Hey Clyde, it sez
> here ya got some full-pay video poker!" Clyde slaps his own
forehead,
> mutters, "Aw Geez, I trusted the darn salesman; better get the
slot
> techs out there to switch them machines again."
>
Laughing out loud
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mark" <mark_my_words_again@y...>
wrote:
What mistake? You think they'd change the denom of a bank of 14 or
20
machines just because one or two hit more than one royal every
38,000
hands or so? I'll bet others hit way less than once every 38,000.
Yes, I'd give 80% odds that's exactly what happened. Casino
management follows very closely the hold of each machine, and ones
that aren't holding (i.e. making money) are given special attention,
they probably find most of their mistakes (and there are many
mistakes) that way. In general, even full pay deuces still has a hold
(profit for the casino) - until royals start hitting. This is quite
typical in mistakes, say for example all american with 250 coin quad -
the hold doesn't go till royals hit, the casino management takes a
look to see what's going on, somebody understands the paytable, or
with today's technology somebody runs the paytable for return. There
is a tendency to think that casino management knows how to play video
poker, but most of them don't, and they don't have to, they just have
to keep track of the hold and if some machines aren't holding they
get rid of them or downgrade the paytable - pretty simple really.
The odd thing is that they removed $ and $.50 deuces completely when
the correct thing to do would have been to just downgrade them, to
say nsud, there would have been some people who would have still
played without noticing the paytable change for a while. This tells
me they really didn't know what they were doing, they just knew that
$ and $.50 deuces weren't holding for some reason and they removed
them all just to be safe. .25 deuces has a hold because at that level
you get enough people that really don't know what they are doing,
they hold high cards like jacks or better, etc.
What could they read off this database? "Sounds like a good play,
I'm
going to the Silver Legacy to check it out." Wouldn't this be
GOODNESS to a casino manager?or you think the VP casino manager got informed, "Hey Clyde, it sez
here ya got some full-pay video poker!" Clyde slaps his own
forehead,
mutters, "Aw Geez, I trusted the darn salesman; better get the
slot
techs out there to switch them machines again."
Yep, you see, from their perspective, they should never have full pay
or positive for the player games. So, they see it mentioned in the
database, or somebody tells them - "hey, i saw online you guys have
positive dollar deuces that a player can make tens of dollars per
hour from!" That would get their attention, yes. The reason some
positive plays continue to survive is that average players get on,
and average players are loosers, so even though some good players are
playing, the machine still has a hold for the casino, and for the
most part nobody is the wiser. Remember, the money is always coming
from average (i.e. poor) players, the casino takes most and the good
players take a little too, but the casino doesn't give away money, at
least not for long. Rarely do casinos operate at a loss, those that
do are generally quickly closed. They might experience *reduced* take
(profit) or reduced churn (play), but it's very rare they operate at
a loss.
It was a well-planned publicity scheme. And a cover for taking away
slow 25 cent FPDW Progressives - 102+% payback machines that ALSO
were never full, and existed for more than a year.
Those machines had a very slow meter, plus on quarters, particularly
not very good plays, you get a lot of average players, so the machine
still shows a hold. My guess is they still made a few percent from
the .25 deuces progressives, believe it or not.
I think the meter might have been .2%? Add that to the +.76 return
*for perfect play*, so if pro's only played the casino would be
loosing about 1% - but of course no real pros would play at that
level, but many average players do, and they drop maybe 5%, even on a
positive (*for perfect play*) game.
As far as keeping plays secret, we've already hashed that one to
death on other threads. The moral was do what you wanna do. In
this
case at the Silver, the pre-Christmas vpfree "publicity" didn't
cause
any run on these machines. They were almost empty at least 8 hours
per day Jan 1-5, that I witnessed.
The point is, more people played them then if this info wasn't
published. The more people that know, the less time for the play. The
machines were never crowded, but they were getting played, by some
fast players, I know, because I am one of the fast players, but I
moved around a fair amount to minimize attention, some people I
didn't know asked if it was a good game and I said I was just playing
because they were brand new and new machines are always looser.
Personally, I don't care that much, for me it wasn't a great play,
for various reasons, and I don't normally cruise through that casino
so I probably wouldn't have found them otherwise, but if I saw them
independently I wouldn't have told anybody else, not even my mother,
and the person that saw them first probably wishes they kept quiet,
so they could have played them more. I guess you could say I am an
advantage player, and there is no particular advantage for me to have
other people know about good plays, because the more that know, the
less time the play will exist.
And I don't know as if there ARE any full-pay STABLE VP plays any
more.
Oh sure there are. 9/6 Jacks or Better, 10/7 Double Bonus, 10/6
Double Double Bonus, 20/10/6/5 2 Pair Joker, Pick'Em Poker, Deuces
Bonus, Triple Deuces, Loose Deuces, ... Older machines with dollar
deuces, joker or all american are probably semi-stable - the database
lists $fpdw at western village, that's been out there for years and
is probably stable because there is no slot club and the machines are
old. Quarter deuces/joker/all american is probably stable because at
that level you get enough average players. My guess is the rough
dividing line is ~$25/hour - above that is not stable because
eventually only good players will be on it.
If you see new, fast, TITO machines with dollar or better fpdw, kings
or better joker, or all american, you should probably keep it to
yourself for a while. There are also various promotions that are
worth more than say $25/hour, those you should probably also keep
quiet about. The less people that know, the more you will get to
play, that's just the way it is. Ten years ago there were $fpdw
everywhere, but winpoker didn't exist and not that many people knew
how to play. In fact, originally, nobody knew the potential return
for fpdw - if I remember correctly Dan Paymar was the first to crack
it. Today, of course, a lot of people know how to play, so the only
way these plays last is if those who know keep quiet about it.
ALSO: from the post in vpFree-Reno, they took off the 50 cent FPDW
option also.~MARK P.
> sounds like it was a casino mistake, a couple of royals hit
sending
> the machine hold negative and the casino figured out their
mistake
> and corrected it, or it could be they read it off the casino
database
> here since it's open to the whole world, not just members of this
> group
>
> moral of the story?
>
> next time do like they do in jersey, mums da woid, yous didn't
see
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "aaquad250" <aaquad250@y...> wrote:
> nuttin, capish?
>
> to the casino database admin: isn't it better to just post stable
> plays, rather than have to be constantly adding and subtracting
plays
> that aren't going to last?
--- aaquad wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mark" <mark_my_words_again@y...>
wrote:
> What mistake? You think they'd change the denom of a bank of 14 or
20
> machines just because one or two hit more than one royal every
38,000
> hands or so? I'll bet others hit way less than once every 38,000.Yes, I'd give 80% odds that's exactly what happened. Casino
management follows very closely the hold of each machine, and ones
that aren't holding (i.e. making money) are given special attention,
they probably find most of their mistakes (and there are many
mistakes) that way. In general, even full pay deuces still has a hold
(profit for the casino) - until royals start hitting.
<SNIP>
First of all, thanks for the great write-up. Thanks for sharing your valuable
knowledge .
But I'm still not buying that publicity killed this play!
If these machines averaged 1000 hands per hour for 12 hours a day, I think
that would be on the generous high side of an estimate. Average Royal
frequency would then be ABOUT one Royal every three days.
Now if even 2/3 of the players are optimal or better strategists, I'm thinking the
Royal frequency actually goes DOWN. Players who do not follow strategy
guidelines actually HOLD such that their Royal frequency goes UP! I am an
example: I have tended to hold ANY 2-card RF on these FPDW, without a
dealt deuce. a 2 RF over Q-high hold is less than optimal, but I will score RF's
on guessed frequency of once every 35,000 as opposed to , say 1 in 36000
hands like the pro. (IF my trip stake for my short trip doesn't run out, I know , I
know).
More "pro" s should = less Royals on the average.
If these machines hit more than their share of Royals (collectively or
individually) if was only random luck. I maintain it had nothing to do with the
the denom, the game's paytable or the better deuces strategies. Hitting the RF
one too many times between emptyings could and probably does happen to
many individual vp machines throughout a casino. Pull the whole bank or
modify the paytable? Maybe that was the vp manager's decision, but it wasn't
based on the correct data or reasoning.
Unfortunately, I am starting to see why the clear publicity could help bring a
good play's demise: when a combination of a vp-ignorant casino vp boss who
is tipped off by a yahoo group-posting helps him "solve" a dilemna of why a
machine or bank of machines isn't holding money. (MAYBE due to excessive
Royal payouts). Kind of a stretch, but you've been around more than I,
aaquad...
More later, maybe a new thread, mabe I'm beating this topic up too much.
I like the idea to speak in code. "Good play at the Mining pace for $1: Quack
Quack. "
~~MARK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mark" <mark_my_words_again@y...>
wrote:
But I'm still not buying that publicity killed this play!
Just killed it earlier. Assuming it was a mistake, its time was
limited anyway. If it was intended to be a promo, it was poorly
executed, to promo they would hang full pay out there for a month or
so to generate lots of buzz and play, then just downgrade the
paytable one machine at a time because people will still play and
then the casino can make lots of money. If they remove the game, of
course no one can play. If they downgrade all at once, all the good
players leave at once and generally average players notice that and
leave as well, but they will still get some play, just like some
people play progressives after they have been hit on the assumption
that the machines are hot.
If these machines averaged 1000 hands per hour for 12 hours a day,
I think
that would be on the generous high side of an estimate. Average
Royal
frequency would then be ABOUT one Royal every three days.
Yeah, but let's imagine one machine, and one pro who plays perfect
strategy. Brand new machine, no one has ever played it before. Let's
say this pro ends up with a statistically average game. This means it
takes about 45,000 hands to hit a royal, say around 45 hours of play.
During these 45 hours of play, the average return is 100.76 - 1.77
(subtract out the royal). In other words, down a percent, the machine
is holding 1%. 45,000 x $5 x 1% = $2250. Do you see what I'm saying?
There is an initial period during which even a positive machine has a
hold, assuming the royal doesn't hit unusually early. But of course
royals hit, and when they do the hold disappears, probably never to
return if they are being played with perfect play. When the hold goes
negative, management notices, and might or might not apply a
correction. Probably not the first royal, but a couple royals would
do it. Each royal hit makes the hold go more negative (for a positive
game being played perfectly).
Now if even 2/3 of the players are optimal or better strategists,
I'm thinking the
Royal frequency actually goes DOWN. Players who do not follow
strategy
guidelines actually HOLD such that their Royal frequency goes UP!
I am an
example: I have tended to hold ANY 2-card RF on these FPDW, without
a
dealt deuce. a 2 RF over Q-high hold is less than optimal, but I
will score RF's
on guessed frequency of once every 35,000 as opposed to , say 1 in
36000
hands like the pro. (IF my trip stake for my short trip doesn't
run out, I know , I
know).
I don't think that's a costly mistake. You are supposed to hold K
high royals if there is no penalty card. Of course, going more
aggressively after the royal costs you more than you gain by hitting
the royal early, which is why it's not optimal ev strategy.
More "pro" s should = less Royals on the average.
If these machines hit more than their share of Royals (collectively
or
individually) if was only random luck. I maintain it had nothing
to do with the
the denom, the game's paytable or the better deuces strategies.
Hitting the RF
one too many times between emptyings could and probably does happen
to
many individual vp machines throughout a casino. Pull the whole
bank or
modify the paytable? Maybe that was the vp manager's decision, but
it wasn't
based on the correct data or reasoning.
The Royals can be early or late, it doesn't matter that much, what
matters is that for a positive game played optimally the hold doesn't
go negative until the royals start hitting. Negative games or
positive games played poorly always have a positive hold.