In a message dated 5/11/2007 3:39:32 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
_harry.porter@verizon.net_ (mailto:harry.por…@…net) writes:
The underlying stats disclose a rather perverse nature at work -- one
that inevitably will lead most players to feel like they're not
getting their share of RF completions ...
<< OK, let me try to understand this bit by bit. Never hold 4 to a Royal
near the back door of Ellis Island lest a perverse lady will try to get what
would be left of an IRS signer if I should hit. And... expect a healthy Room and
Food comp if I don't hit.
As you'd expect, you look for 1 in 47 holds to come through on
average. But the median point (the point at which half of your hits
occur before and half after) is at 32 holds.
<< So... are you saying throw back any 3 to a Royal while waiting for the
one with the number "32" at the bottom right on the screen? Or, to "hit" the
screen in order to speed up hatching of the Royal egg?
It doesn't take much thought to realize that the reason for the
discrepancy is those occasions where you suffer a lengthly drought,
creating a long "tail" beyond 32 holds, so things on the whole average
out at the expected 47 holds.
<<Well, I guess it takes a lot of thought for anybody not from Philly living
where there is a drought with only a slight "tail" wind to blow away the
gases.
That logic notwithstanding, it's going to be one's general experience
that sometime around 32 holds you expect to finally hit on the 4 card
hold. About the time that you merely have waited things out to the
statistically "expected" 47 hold average you're going to feel like the
machines are holding out on you.
<<Wait. If I read this right you're saying I have to wait but not longer
than when they close down the machine in order to make a popcorn dispenser out
of it in which case I should expect them not to be "holding out" on the extra
butter.
I put this out as just one example of the many ways in which the
vagaries of vp can lead you into a distorted view of what to expect
(and why we're often tempted to play in a manner contrary to what the
"math" suggests is optimal).
<<Here we agree completly. The "vageries" make my glasses steamy too,
especially the one's with frontal armaments like at Bellagio.
btw, in a non-Joker game such as Jacks or Deuces, you hold 4 cards to
the RF once every 2825 hands (about once every 3 hours for speedier
players ... 2 hours for the demons on meth). So, it's gonna be once
in 133K hands on average that you snag that "fish in a barrel" RF ...
but 50% of the time you'll have it in your paws before 90K.
<<"Fish in a barrel"? Ohhhh OK. Play Deuces and or Jokers only on a bartop
in a beer bar on a live bait barge but not if my Uncle Skip is in there having
a beer drinking contest with Bob Dancer after both consumed a demon douse of
meth.
JT, I think
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