>
> 3% in Mississippi definitely.
>
>
This would pose some interesting situations when analyzing a play
in
Mississippi.
Say, Brand X casino has some promotion or combination of promotion
plus freeplay/cashback and the whole thing comes to a 2% add-on.
And my only two choices for video poker are dollar Full Pay White
Hot
Aces (99.8%), or dollar 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%). The 9/6
Jacks
would be the better play.
In the case of the WHA, I'm going to get W2-G'd everytime I make a
royal or 4 aces. That averages to about every 3830 games. The 3%
tax equates to a loss in expected value of 24 bets per 3830 games
or
about .63%, effectively reducing the payback for the game to about
99.17%.
But with the 9/6 Jacks I'm gonna lose 24 bets in expected value
only
every 40,391 games, reducing the payback to 99.48%. That's not
much
of a chop. The clear choice would be the 9/6 Jacks.
I was running late. I got back from WalMart last evening, put the
stuff away, and decided to do a quick scan of my email before meeting
friends for cocktails. Wow! There's a post from Bob Dancer. To
what do I owe this pleasure? I opened the post up. Bob didn't go
into much detail but explained to me that the information I gave in
the above post was incorrect. I quickly read the post once, then
decided to deal with it later as I was late for meeting my friends.
I walked quickly down to the bar.
They were there and I joined in. But I wasn't much fun for them.
The word "incorrect" kept running through my brain. Tom, Adrian, and
Toni were laughing and whooping it up. But I was staring at the
wall. "How could I have been incorrect" I kept asking myself. I
kept going over the details of the play in my head.
Toni said "Mickey, are you okay?"
"Yes, Sweetheart, I'm okay. I'm just thinking about something."
"What are you thinking about?" She asked.
"Bob Dancer."
"Who's Bob Dancer?" she asked again.
"He's a professional video poker player.
"Just like you?" she queried. Toni, Tom and Adrian know I play video
poker for a living. They just don't know how it's done and that I
won't teach them how to do it. Well, maybe one of these days I might
teach Toni.
"Not exactly like me, Toni. He's the most famous video poker player
in the world. Books, DVD's, Seminars, Classes. He's put down the
biggest plays known to man."
"What's a play?" Adrian asked.
"Not right now Adrian. I've got other things to think about."
"So, why are you thinking about that guy tonight" Tom piped in.
"Have you ever heard of vpFREE" I ask him.
"No, what's that."
"It's a yahoo group on the internet. All of the elite video poker
players of the world are on the site. Everyone is not elite because
anyone can join the group. But all of the elite are there."
"And you belong to that group" Toni asked.
"Yes, and I made a post the other day analyzing a play and I may have
been incorrect in my math."
"What's a play?" Adrian asked again.
"I'll tell you later, Adrian. Let me think right now."
They go back to jaw jacking amongst themselves and I go back to
racking my brain. It finally registered.
"That's it!! I got it!!" They stare at me
"24 bets!" I said "24 bets per W2-G is wrong. It would be 24 bets
loss in EV per royal and-" I pull out my pocket calculator. "3% of
$1200 is only $36, which would be 7.2 bets loss in EV per Quad Aces."
They stare at me. "So what the hell does that mean?" says Tom
"It means I have to go back on vpFREE with mud on my face and correct
my mistake."
"You're so sweet, Mickey" Toni says.
"Yes, that's right sweetheart. Now what I want to know is when are
you going to leave that Pizza Chef and take up with me?"
"You know I already left him."
"But you still live in the same house."
"I live in one end of the house and he lives on the other. And you
know I have a son to think about."
"You know, Toni, theres a woman at The Main Street Lounge hot on my
trail. You keep messing around and I might let her catch me."
"No, you won't" she said.
"How do you know?"
"Because you don't love her. You love me."
"You know, Toni, you would make an outstanding poker player. But
watch out girl! One of these days I might come over the top of you
and move all in."
"What did you say to me?!! You can't talk to me like that!!"
"No, No, No, Toni what I mean't was-"
"I heard what you said, Mister!"
"Toni, you're ignorance is so refreshing."
"So now I'm stupid too!!!!"
"No, No, No, Toni--come back!" She grabbed her purse and stomped
off. At least I got to watch her walk away. Toni is not hard to
look at--no matter which direction she's headed. She disappeared into
the women's room.
I looked over to see Tom and Adrian sitting there with smirks on
their faces. "Congratulations, Mickey" says Tom. "You just managed
to piss off the whole Chippewa-Cree Nation."
"For Christs sakes" I said. "Aint't you guys ever played any poker?.
I sat there, dejected, wondering how I was going to get myself out of
the jam.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Robert Culver <rculver@> wrote:
_______________________________
So, anyways, today I reread Bob's post. First, he told my that the
WHA game (99.8%) was actually Triple Bonus Poker Plus. So I went
back to the Wizard of Odds and took a look. The Wiz has the same
payscale listed under both WHA and TBPP. Maybe a mistake on the
Wizzes part, I don't know because I don't play either game.
Then I go to one of the vp analyzers and punch in the numbers. 4
Aces @ $1164 and the Royal Flush @ $3880. Yep, Bob was right. The
99.8% game would come in at 99.57%, not the 99.17% that I reported.
I didn't screw up the 9/6 Jacks. It came in at 99.48%. The TBPP/WHA
game definitely has the higher EV.
But if I had some sort of promotion or cashback/freeplay working on
something like this my personal choice would probably be to trade in
the extra EV for the lower variance.
Thanks, Bob, for taking the time out to point out my mistake. And
may I give YOU some advice: Never piss off an Indian.
Good luck
Mickey