This is long.
I thought I'd post some real life observations on this game which I
realize very few people play (At least those who are non Las vegas
Locals) for any significant time because of the bankroll required.
This game is a lot of fun to play which is probably why its my game
of choice. After about a dozen 3 to 5 day trips to Vegas (I realize
the sample is small), I wondered why I was experiencing a variance
that seemed not in keeping with what I would expect i.e. floating
closely around the 99.54 expected return. My returns seemes to be
more like +/-3% per trip with session excursions as high as +/- 10%.
I sure was pumping a lot of money through the machines while sitiing
at the machines a fair part of the day.
After just returning from my latest trip and cleaning up around my
computer I stumbled across an old 1999 Lazbo Burns article of
probability distributions of various single line video poker games
over short time intervals (5000 - 10000 hands). All of a sudden a
gong went off in my head when I looked at the non normal distibutions
of these intervals. So I went back and looked at my records which I
keep meticulously for tax purposes and shocked myself.
I can play about 800 hands per hour on a single line machine when the
machine is tuned for high speed and the buttons work freely.
However, my records indicated that I play about $300 K per day at 100
way machines. That's a lot of money, but really not a lot of
individual different dealt hands. I've been deluding myself into
thinking my results should be close to enough play for expected long
term results, but now I know I'm operating on one of Jazbo's short
term probability distributuion curves.
How did I delude myself. Well, most casinos don't have many of the
$1. 100 way machines. When I want to play, one or more may be in use
by someone playing a 5c denomination of 5 hands. Secondly, when
playing at $500 a pop, the light comes on a bunch. 90% of the two
pair hands are over $1,200. Even if you're having the casino accrue
the W2G's a bunch of normal play time is taken up by an attendant
coming up writing down your number and using the credit key feature
to unlock the machine. Once I tried playing two machines in tandem,
but that made me uncomfortable. I also don't like psychologically
having an attendent standing directly behind me looking over my
shoulder when I play. Believe it or not it makes me nervous.
My play results of the $300K/day translates into only 600 differently
dealt hands per day which I consider more indicative of the expected
distribution than the 600 x 100 hands at a time or 60,000 actual
hands per day. Now I see why my trip results have the volatility
that they have even playing JOB. The positive effects of multi play
machines closing the volatility range are overwhelmed by the small
number of individually dealt hands.
In closing I recommend this game because of the fun involved, but for
out of staters like me be aware that the bankroll you want to take
with you may be more than you think. Denny