vpFREE2 Forums

When do you decide that a machine just isn't gonna pop?

#21

Howdy

The simple answer is "When you feel like it." Of course that does not mean you are going to be right. The second someone else sits down it could "pop". No two players have the exact same thoughts and feelings . The question ,of course, is subjective....so is the answer. You can bring into the mix anything that you deem important in your opinion. However, you can not control the RNG.

Grumpy

In a message dated 04/07/09 10:11:04 Eastern Daylight Time, greeklandjohnny writes:

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "truushot1" <acptconstruction@> wrote:
> I was wondering, when do you decide that you need to switch machines or just quit for the day?

Everybody should have a fixed stop loss limit before they start the play. The amount of the limit is up to you, could be $1, or $5, or $100, or more. But at some point you either decide to walk away or that decision is made for you (out of funds). Sure you could get lucky and hit a jackpot that also puts you ahead, instead of a sucker jackpot that only returns some of your loses, but you really shouldn't count on it, unless you really know what you are doing. Of course, if you knew what you were doing, you would understand exactly the implications (risk of ruin) of your beforehand chosen stop loss limit. Any gamble involves some risk of ruin, except in the unusual case where any result returns at least your original bet.

NOTI, interesting post. The stop loss limit has been discussed in the past. There are some conditions where that makes sense ( not from a math standpoint but from a perception standpoint). If you have $1000 total for a 4 day trip and losing $250 each day is 'acceptable' to you and possibly losing $1000 in one day is not, then stop loss of $250 makes sense. Now if you are well funded and have a positive play with a good expected return, playing the $1000 the first day, even if it all goes, makes sense since a) the play might disappear and b) you are playing to make money and playing 4 hours today is no different than playing 2 hours today and 2 hours tomorrow.

Stop loss makes sense if you are playing a negative game.

Now, the sucker jackpot is a new term. I assume this refers to hitting a straight flush on $ Jacks or better when you are down $700.
If you always want to have a straight flush get you back to at least even, you should never be down more than $250 at dollar jacks. There will be a lot of short sessions with that criteria.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#22

I switch machines if I lose half of what I put in without getting a hand above 3OAK. That's not based on anything other than my instinct. A bad session in any game doesn't make me want to quit for the day. I just move on to something else.

TC
http://eastcoastgambler.net/

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "truushot1" <acptconstruction@...> wrote:

I was wondering, when do you decide that you need to switch machines or just quit for the day?

#23

My point is that there are two approaches to gambling. You could set a stop loss limit before you start play and quit if you hit that limit. That's considered gambling in control. The other approach is to simply gamble and see how much it's possible to lose. That's considered irresponsible gambling. It makes no difference whether you think you have an advantage or not, if it's gambling there is always the chance of losing and always the very real chance that you have miscalculated your odds. The same concept applies to drinking alcohol, you could set a limit at two drinks, or you could drink until you think you've had enough.

http://casinowatch.org/studies_research/Mo%20Loss%20Limit%20Addiction%20.pdf
"It has been argued that the loss limit
is not effective at reducing or helping
compulsive gamblers and as such it should
be removed. However, the loss limit helps
to enforce the Missouri Disassociated
Persons List, reduce the speed at which
gamblers play the games, and limit the
amount of financial loss that families
experience as a result of gambling addiction."

http://www.google.com/search?q="stop+loss+limit"

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote:

NOTI, so we went from stop loss is a mathematical reality to stop loss is a practical approach to gambling. In your last sentence you say that stop loss is always there. So every gambler uses stop loss ( since it is always there). So every gambler takes a practical approach to gambling?

#24

My point is that personally, I have no idea of what a "proper bankroll" would be for this game. If I knew the variance, I could estimate a "Kelly bankroll", but I have no idea if that is a "proper bankroll" or not and even with a "Kelly bankroll" I know that I am not guaranteed a win. What exactly is a "proper bankroll"?

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dennis Salguero <salguero@> wrote:
> You're telling me that if I have a game with a 105% EV that there is no
> proper bankroll for that? Come on now!

What is the "proper bankroll" for such a game?

#25

What exactly is a "proper bankroll"?

I hope this is not "off subject", but I find that defining my "bankroll" using the concept of "short=term ROR", as defined by Dunbar to be an excellent way to pick and choose what I will be wanting to play and how much I will be wanting to play for any given visit to any given gambling venue.

Using this concept I know how much money I need to bring on a particular trip and because it is pretty conservative, I have NEVER used all my bankroll (actually, I never came close to using all my bankroll) on any given trip.

..... bl

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

#26

Wow, all you need to avoid the results of a gambling addiction is a stop loss limit? That's pretty naive.

I also didn't realize there are only 2 approaches to gambling. If there are only 2 approaches to gambling, then whatever doesn't fit into the first category belongs in the second category. So, if I don't set a stop loss limit, then I am just gambling to see how much I can lose?

In an earlier post, you said that stop loss limit is always present, either by a number I set or by the amount of money that I can access.
So, stop loss is always present but if I don't use it, I'm a degenerate gambler. Very confusing discussion. A good starting point might be what a stop loss limit is and how long does it last.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@> wrote:
> NOTI, so we went from stop loss is a mathematical reality to stop loss is a practical approach to gambling. In your last sentence you say that stop loss is always there. So every gambler uses stop loss ( since it is always there). So every gambler takes a practical approach to gambling?

My point is that there are two approaches to gambling. You could set a stop loss limit before you start play and quit if you hit that limit. That's considered gambling in control. The other approach is to simply gamble and see how much it's possible to lose. That's considered irresponsible gambling. It makes no difference whether you think you have an advantage or not, if it's gambling there is always the chance of losing and always the very real chance that you have miscalculated your odds. The same concept applies to drinking alcohol, you could set a limit at two drinks, or you could drink until you think you've had enough.

http://casinowatch.org/studies_research/Mo%20Loss%20Limit%20Addiction%20.pdf
"It has been argued that the loss limit
is not effective at reducing or helping
compulsive gamblers and as such it should
be removed. However, the loss limit helps
to enforce the Missouri Disassociated
Persons List, reduce the speed at which
gamblers play the games, and limit the
amount of financial loss that families
experience as a result of gambling addiction."

http://www.google.com/search?q="stop+loss+limit"

#27

Agreed.

http://www.google.com/search?q="stop+loss+limit"

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote:

A good starting point might be what a stop loss limit is and how long does it last.

#28

So, you are using stop loss limit from the stock market world to apply to gambling? For video poker, I don't think they are the same thing. The reason you apply a stop loss limit on a stock is the belief that once a stock falls below a certain value, it will continue to decrease. If you believe the same thing happens on a video poker machine, you must not believe that the video poker machine hands are independent trials. Two different situations.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@> wrote:
>A good starting point might be what a stop loss limit is and how long does it last.

Agreed.

http://www.google.com/search?q="stop+loss+limit"

#29

I usually stay at the same machine until I have to stop to go the bathroom or eat, or when I reached my stopping point and decide to quit. I generally don't switch machines no matter how bad I'm doing because mathematically it makes no difference. Atlantic City has non-smoking sections, so I don't have to worry about having to move because of smokers.

As far as when to stop, that could be a problem, especially when I'm losing and want to try to recoup my losses - especially if I don't stop and end up losing more. So now I try to plan on playing a specific number of hands, which is very easy for me to do at the HET casinos since the machines have point counters. For example, on a $1 machine ($5 per hand with maximum coin), I might decide to play to 900 points, which is 1800 hands or about 3 hours. It doesn't always work, but it does help. For example, if I didn't stop at the 900 points as planned, I might decide to go to 1200 points, so at least I have some type of guideline to encourage stopping. If you play at a casino that doesn't track hands or points, you can play for a certain time period.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "truushot1" <acptconstruction@...> wrote:

I was wondering, when do you decide that you need to switch machines or just quit for the day?

#30

Exactly. There is no "regression to the mean" in independent event random slot machines. The more you play, the greater is your standard deviation in dollars from the expected mean value. If you play an even money gamble against an opponent, both starting with the same amount of money (your bankroll versus the house's cutoff limit), the eventual result is that one of you will run out of money, not that you will end up where you started (no "regression to the mean"). The end odds are 50% that you will run out of money and 50% that you will double up and hit the house's cutoff limit, so the average result is an even money gamble, but your results are not even, either you bust out or double up.

Standard deviation from the mean = square_root_of (variance x number_of_hands_played)

5 coin quarters FPDW standard deviation:
50,000 hands = $1,425
100,000 hands = $2,016
200,000 hands = $2,850
500,000 hands = $4,507
1,000,000 hands = $6,374

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Alan" <alan3262@...> wrote:

As far as when to stop, that could be a problem, especially when I'm losing and want to try to recoup my losses - especially if I don't stop and end up losing more.

#31

"Exactly. There is no "regression to the mean" in independent event random slot machines."

Well, I beg to differ.
Whenever I am on one of those losing streaks, I definitely "regress" to a very "mean" preevolved state of mind. All the Dalai Lama in my personality regresses to an earlier evolutionary cycle, first Clint Eastwood emerges, and if I fail to get justice and revenge, out comes King Kong raging at the airplanes only in my movie it is not beauty or the airplanes but gambling that finally kills the beast.

#32

When it's a negative expectation payscale.