I'm 100% with Harry here. Even without going as far as knowing all or
even any penalty card situations, some simplified strategies still get
close to being perfect. The wizard of odd's simple 9/6 JoB strategy
boils down to 16 lines of strategy; by comparison his optimal strategy
is written in 39 lines plus 6 cases of penalty cards. Yet the simple
strategy plays within 0.08% of being perfect. This intermediate
strategy, in 24 lines, doesn't have any penalty cards and packs in a
few more simplifications compared to the optimal strategy, and plays
within 0.03%.
I believe that I know the optimal strategy with 4 out of the 6
situations where penalty cards are involved (and the other 2
situations don't seem to happen often). That means that on paper I
should be able to play perfectly within an irrelevant fraction of a
percent, right?
Wrong. Absolutely wrong. I make stupid mistakes. Horrible mistakes. I
play too fast. I let myself be distracted which makes not follow the
flow of the game.
Some examples? I seem to miss 4-to-a-flush about once every 400 hands.
That costs me about 0.12%. Missing low pairs seems to cost me about as
much. Missing 3 to a SF isn't far behind, and 4 to an outside straight
follows closely. The worst of all? Approximately once every 1200 hands
I only play one pair our of 2 dealt pairs. That also costs me 0.12%.
Putting all those stupid mistakes together I make more than 0.5% worth
of errors.
Take as an example missing 4-to-a-flush and playing a low pair
instead, which costs a bit over 2 coins on average. Playing a perfect
play in 9/6 JoB except for missing 4-to-a-flush against a low pair
once per hour costs more than playing the simple strategy with no
mistakes.
On the other hand, I can't be entirely sure that I'd play more
accurately if I didn't know a near-optimal strategy with most penalty
card situations. However I'd probably play much more accurately if I
didn't play as fast.
JBQ
···
On 7/30/05, Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net> wrote:
Anytime I read of someone who takes considerable pride in dealing with
penalty card situations in their play, I strongly suspect that they've
blinded themselves to vulnerabilities in their play unless they've
demonstrated themselves to be among the very most proficient and
knowledgable players.