vpFREE2 Forums

Short Term vs Long Term

#21

Jean Scott wrote:

For non-math people who are still reading this thread, here is my
explanation. You will get to the long term faster by playing
multi-line so you won't need quite as large a lifetime bankroll as
for the same coin-in on a single line, but you will definitely go
deeper into your SESSIONS bankroll.

Jean, I'll disagree with the latter portion of this statement. When
the context is the same coin-in played per play, so long as it's
assumed that each session consists of the same total coin-in,
multi-line play will go SLIMMER into your bankroll within a single
session.

And the fact that multi-line play is typically slower than single line
(fewer plays per hour), it's likely a multi-line session will entail
smaller total coin-in, making the "SLIMMER" statement all the more true.

So long as "same coin-in per play" is assumed, a slimmer bankroll
requirement characterizes multi-line play in all regards.

When "same denomination of play" is assumed, the converse holds.

···

------

Moving back into the math realm, (merely to add an additional
practical dimension) there is a base denomination of each game and
number of multi-line lines for which bankroll requirements (session,
when coin-in is the same - and lifetime) roughly equalize. This would
likely be the point at which the total variance of each play is
identical (at least in the case that the same game, e.g. 10/7 DB, is
played in each case). An example for which this might be the case is
14-line $.25 play vs. single line $1 play (I haven't performed the
specific calculation).

However, because of disparate coin-in per hour, sessions bankrolls for
sessions consisting of same length of play would differ. In this
case, similar bankrolls for each type of session of equal length might
require that the product of respective variances and $ coin-in/hr be
identical. Again, the Jazbo website previously noted discusses the
calculation of variance for multi-line play.

- H.

#22

I once held a FL4H1 on a fifty play and missed all the way up. Zero
credits for that hand. That's some hellatious variance.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "cmayhem2001" <chandler_re@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Luke Fuller" <kungalooosh@> wrote:
>
> Why does the variance changes in multi-line, depending on the
> denomination per line?
>
> Or, to put it another way....
>
> Why is the variance different if I play 5 cent 100-line vs.
> $1 5-line vs. $5 1-line? Either way, it's $25 per pull.
>
> Or, maybe, I misunderstood?
>
>

You need to understand the concept of covariance. Because so many
hands share the same deal and only the draw is separate, it
increases total variance vs a game where every deal and draw is a
separate event. A single play FPJB game has a variance of a bit
over 19, as I recall. The same game in hundred play has a variance
of something like 214. See the Jazbo or Wizard of Odds links to N
Play discussions.

Chandler

#23

I have found that usually the more math people try to explain a concept to non-math people the more confused both of them get. At least I do.

  For whomever posted the original question (or anyone else), think of it this way.

  You are playing a 1 million-play machine. (And don't quibble, people. Assume that's the number required)

  Every hand you hold will end up paying you the theoretical amount that the hold was worth. In fact, playing this million-play machine, there is no need to draw at all, since it will always come out the same (within a few decimal points) so the designers of the Million-Play machine remove the draw (since everyone in the year 2020 now plays the draw perfectly) and has the machine pay you what those million draws would come to directly after the deal. ALL the variance is on the deal. Basically it's a slot machine in VP form. Oh, and the best pay table is 97.3% (considered "full-pay" in '20.)

  Back to reality: Obviously, as the number of plays decrease from 1 million to 1 thousand to 100 to 3, the chances of getting a variety of results increases. But it's only a matter of degree. In any Multi-Play, the deal gets the full load of variance while the variance of the draw is reduced more and more as the number of hands increase.

Hope that helps.
Skip

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#24

<<Jean Scott wrote:

For non-math people who are still reading this thread, here is my
explanation. You will get to the long term faster by playing
multi-line so you won't need quite as large a lifetime bankroll as
for the same coin-in on a single line, but you will definitely go
deeper into your SESSIONS bankroll.

Jean, I'll disagree with the latter portion of this statement. When
the context is the same coin-in played per play, so long as it's
assumed that each session consists of the same total coin-in,
multi-line play will go SLIMMER into your bankroll within a single
session.

And the fact that multi-line play is typically slower than single line
(fewer plays per hour), it's likely a multi-line session will entail
smaller total coin-in, making the "SLIMMER" statement all the more true.

So long as "same coin-in per play" is assumed, a slimmer bankroll
requirement characterizes multi-line play in all regards.

When "same denomination of play" is assumed, the converse holds.>>

Sorry, I was thinking of this last scenario. So many people switch from quarter single line to quarter Triple Play. You don't need quite 3 times the long-term bankroll if it is the same paytable, but you will certainly go deeper into a session bankroll at times. Bigger session wins AND bigger session losses.

···

________________
Jean $�ott
The much-expanded new edition of my tax book,
including a new chapter on poker, is now available
to order at my Web site, http://queenofcomps.com/.

#25

Jean Scott wrote:

Sorry, I was thinking of this last scenario. So many people switch
from quarter single line to quarter Triple Play. You don't need quite
3 times the long-term bankroll if it is the same paytable, but you
will certainly go deeper into a session bankroll at times. Bigger
session wins AND bigger session losses.

I didn't expect that you had this confused in your mind. If only our
fingers would always type what was in our mind, rather than
occasionally having a mind of their own :wink:

- H.

... well, on second thought, perhaps it's a good thing that my fingers
don't always type EXACTLY what's on my mind.

#26

mickeycrimm wrote:

I once held a FL4H1 on a fifty play and missed all the way up. Zero
credits for that hand. That's some hellatious variance.

I only play in a limited number of venues, and on a more limited
bankroll. The only reasonably strong paytable I've encountered in
50-play was in quarters, so I only played 20 lines.

Still, imagine my frustration when I held (3s 6s 7s 8c Ts) and didn't
hit a damned thing!

- H.