vpFREE2 Forums

Short Term TDB Question.

Of course. For the objective of losing all my money
as fast as possible, the optimal strategy is to break
all pairs and hold un-suited low cards. The point that
the experts should be making is that the max-EV
objective is the only one that isn't stupid.

···

--- Steve Jacobs <jacobs@xmission.com> wrote:

On Tuesday 30 September 2003 05:37 pm, paisonvp > wrote:
> Perhaps you are confusing "simple" with simplistic
or, maybe,
> simple-minded. For every video poker hand dealt
on every video poker
> machine, regardless of whether the game's ev is
positive or not, one
> and only one mathematically correct hold exists.
All other holds are
> inferior. No amount of convoluted un-think can
change that fact.

This is "common sense" but it is flat wrong. While
it is true that there
is generally only one strategy for maximizing EV,
the choice to
maxmize EV cannot be shown mathematically to be
"superior"
to other objectives which are based on optimizing
something other
than EV.

If your goal is to maximize the probability of
building your bankroll to
some fixed amount, then the max-EV strategy become
sub-optimal.
The optimal strategy for this case also becomes a
function of the
target. If you have a bankroll of 100 (indivisible)
units, then the
optimal strategy for growing the bankroll to 200
units is different than
the optimal strategy for growing the bankroll to 300
units.

If your goal is to minimize the average dollars lost
while playing to
hit a royal, then the max-EV strategy is
sub-optimal.

If your goal is to maximize the geometric growth
rate of your bankroll,
then the max-EV strategy is sub-optimal.

This is a concept that many gambling "experts"
simply do no grasp.
The "optimal" strategy is relative to the objective
you are trying
to achieve, and max-EV is only one possible
objective.

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Hi,

You don't want to argue about the several points you have raised in
your message, so I won't.

I like mathematics, but I sometimes take issue with 1 + 1 = 2. I
agree with the preceding arithmetic statement in general, but when
you apply it to real life you have to be careful. One apple plus
another apple is not two apples that you might eat if one of them is
rotten. I will not eat the rotten apple just because it is the
mathematically correct thing to do, it is not.

I must say I'm puzzled by some comments in your message. For example,
even though I have read many articles by Rob Singer, I have not been
able to elucidate exactly what his play strategy is; yet you seem to
assume said strategy is common knowledge. I do think RS's comments
are frequently entertaining and amusing, and his grasp of the long
term is mathematically more correct than what sometimes one sees
written in different places. He does become at times a little
uninteresting in his articles, but so does Bob Dancer. Look at the
latter's column this week, what is there? Essentially a statement
that it is better to play 10/6 DDB instead of 9/5 DDB because if you
play long enough, you do get full houses and flushes often, and they
count. Well, that was hardly more interesting than finding out that
Rob Singer got a mailing from Tuscany. In any case I mean no offense
to either individual with these comments. I know it must be tough
writing something up each week and they do a good job. I'm thankful
both have their columns because it is always nice reading about VP;
maybe reading them their luck will rub off, LOL.

I believe as you do in attaining "a strong, sound grasp of the very
basics of video poker", and I also believe that "it takes
considerable concerted effort to attain that". But I believe the
previous is not a sufficient condition to "successful play". On the
other hand, luck is both necessary and sufficient to successful play,
even though such concept is elusive.

I hope we don't start a religious VP war, LOL. Religious wars are
ghastly! Cheers.

E

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

To extend your reasoning, any play in a casino that deviates from
perfect strategy the can be rationalized in some manner is "correct
and reasonable". I have two problems with this.

The first is that invariably the person engaging in deviant play has
little idea of the theoretical cost. The second is that if you want
to have a reasonable shot at play without turning your bankroll over
to the casino, a disciplined approach is essential.

When a player is impelled to deviate from strategy to satisfy some
intermediate goal (e.g., shortening the RF cycle) it suggests that

the

player has some difficulties with acceptance of the most basic
concepts of video poker and that it may simply not be the game for

them.

Now, there are always going to be players who are inclined to play
using strategies other than those that maximize ER. Frankly, there
will be no rational argument to dissuade them from that behavior

and I

don't attempt to try. It's very much akin to a religious debate.

It bears mentioning that I have considerable respect for Rob Singer
inasmuch as I believe that he is disciplined in following a specific
play strategy and doesn't play on hunches or whims. But as my

remarks

indicate, I don't think that his play is advisable. (Of course,

there

are damned few here to whom Rob would advocate his strategy given

the

large bankroll requirements.)

Bottom line, I find myself a bit aggravated when players choose to
obsess over aspects of play such as whether games are fair, whether
they have hot and cold cycles, or seek out alternate strategies that
are of dubious value, at best. Hopefully I'll get a clue and get

over

it. I recognize that for some these are areas of significant

concern.

However, a strong, sound grasp of the very basics of video poker is
essential to successful play and it takes considerable concerted
effort to attain that. Any concern aside from this is a distraction
that I think is very much to the player's detriment.

Again, I acknowledge that there will be those who demur at the

points

···

I've raised here and there's no need to argue them. This is not a
debate of your post, Ed. Rather, I've used it as an offshoot from
which to express my thoughts on the subject.

- Harry

The problem is 1+1 always equals 2 in the area being discussed. If
you are not interested (seems clear) in maximizing your $$ (no
metaphysics) return discussing math is of no value at all. Re-
defining success is usually an excuse for lack of effort. Luck takes
care of itself if you stop finding excuses to not learn the right way
to play & stick with it 100%

I like mathematics, but I sometimes take issue with 1 + 1 = 2. I
agree with the preceding arithmetic statement in general, but when
you apply it to real life you have to be careful. > I believe as

you do in attaining "a strong, sound grasp of the very

basics of video poker", and I also believe that "it takes
considerable concerted effort to attain that". But I believe the
previous is not a sufficient condition to "successful play". On the
other hand, luck is both necessary and sufficient to successful

play,

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mubowor" <erchalb@c...> wrote:

even though such concept is elusive.

I hope we don't start a religious VP war, LOL. Religious wars are
ghastly! Cheers.

E

Jere Neese wrote:

Of course. For the objective of losing all my money
as fast as possible, the optimal strategy is to break
all pairs and hold un-suited low cards. The point that
the experts should be making is that the max-EV
objective is the only one that isn't stupid.

If you knew of a 5-coin $1000 machine with a .01% advantage that you
could play at 1000 hands per hour (an EV of $500 per hour), would you
play it?

Clearly "thinking outside the box" isn't your cup of tea.

If your free time is the least bit precious to you, here is a tip
for saving some of that precious free time: watch for future
articles with my name on them, and skip them completely.
I guarantee that they won't have anything in them that will
interest you. I'll try to do likewise.

···

On Wednesday 01 October 2003 10:40 am, Jere Neese wrote:

The point that
the experts should be making is that the max-EV
objective is the only one that isn't stupid.