I noticed Cindy's tool doesn't go below 1%, but that can be solved
with this formula:
Bankroll@ror1=Bankroll@ror2 x ln(ror1)/ln(ror2)
If you can "supplement" your own play (I hear you can sell casino
chips on ebay for more than their face value, if not that you can
always be a strip gigolo, or set up a meth lab in your hotel room) to
the tune of 0.5% cashback, using Cindy's tool, the bankroll@1%ror is:
3964 bets. ln(.001)/ln(.01)=1.5, so the 0.1%ror (99.9% survivability)
bankroll is 5964 bets ($7,432.50 on five coin quarters).
But all you really have to remember is this:
kelly=approximately variance/(ER+cashback-1) bets
bankroll under kelly/3= expect to bust out
bankroll at kelly/2= expect to break even (optimal strategy is minrisk)
bankroll at kelly= expect max bankroll growth (optimal strategy is
between minrisk and maxER)
bankroll over kelly= less risk but less bankroll growth (optimal
strategy approaches maxER)
This is all just math, it doesn't require faith to make it valid, nor
does disbelief or ignorance make it invalid.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@> wrote:
> But that doesn't seem unrealistic at all (the funding part, not the 5K
> hands, day in and day out ;). I can well see someone starting out
> with an upfront $10K loss allowance and being willing to supplement
> that with as much as $3K-$5K per year, unceasingly, as an
> entertainment budget against 1500+ hrs. of play a year. I expect that
> if these numbers need be adjusted to a moderate degree to get to a
> 99.9% survival probability that I'd be quite comfortable with that as
> well.Your numbers look about correct, for $1.25/hand. I suspect the average
quarter player would be surprised at their size however.