With the Nevada
Gaming Commission unable to verify if the machines have been
compromised or biased in some way, are you sure those are "OVER 100%
PAYOUT" games you are playing?
I am more than reasonably sure that all of the machines that I play in
Nevada are exactly fair according to the paytable, the manufacturer, the
casino, and the NGC. What the commission can check and does check may be two
different things. I can only make an educated guess as to what the value of
the loss of a gaming license would be to a large publicly traded
multi-billion dollar corporation.. Because of this unwritten threat, I think
even the stupidest CEO, who would have to have many equally idiotic
co-conspirators, may think more than twice regarding any notion to tamper
with a video poker machine. That being said, I wont bore you with useless
statistics of what might happen in your game, or if your ROR is this, or the
NO is that, and please look into the PDF's and CDF's, oh my. I am amazed at
the number of posters who put significant weight into their favorite
mathematical tool, but I rarely see anything posted about long term actual
results for a specific game. We've all seen these stats on what could happen
and what should happen, but hey, what did happen? That's what I want to
know. Since Morrie focused on FPDW. I decided to pull and post my 2006
results for that game. I played 72 sessions of regular vanilla .25 FPDW for
the year, a total of 353.25 hours and 263,846 hands for a coin-in total of
$329,807.50. More than 90% of the play was at a Station's owned property. I
netted $7,752.00 profit on game play. Mathematical expectation was both
right on and way off. Based on the long term quad deuces appearance every
4909.103 hands, I should have gotten 53.75 sets, and I nailed 54 of them.
Royals wee a different story. I should have only expected 5.83 of the large
honor family to show up, but I was blessed with 10 of them. Hell, this is
almost as good as doublin' up in an all in move in no limit hold 'em. Thanks
to this continual return engagement of the large straight flush, I was able
to make $21.94 per hour just on the play of the game, and I should have
expected to earn about a third of that figure. Being over royaled is a good
thing. Don't get me wrong. Maintaining the proper bankroll for the games
that you play is vitally important. Picking a comfortable level of risk is
as well. However, trying to forecast anyone's next years results is damned
near impossible. We all know that the most likely long term result for
quarter FPDW play should be about $7.60 profit per $1,000 coin in. How many
sessions have you ever had wind up right at that figure? Most probably, the
answer is none. I like to think that I am adept enough at using all the
resources that are available, but can you put too much weight into picking
this game variance over that one, that game for it's lower royal cycle? I
certainly think so. Some seem to get way too hung up on these things. FPDW
is a fine quarter player's choice as it has medium variance, high return,
and is relatively easy to master. Is that enough to guarantee you will win?
Absolutely not. All the experts and the gaming writers that talk about the
bell curve charts, the NO's, the min. this and max. that fail to mention one
really important aspect of the game. You have to catch cards. Hopefully, the
right ones. And you have to do this at or better than the expected rate if
you want to be a long term winner. Preparation is fine, and I don't think
you can ever practice too much on the few acceptable brands of computer
software that are available. I've been playing a handful of games for years,
but I practice the main game that I will be playing that day almost every
morning, but did I mention, you have to catch cards. I spend about double
the amount of time per year that I listed above for deuces on one of the
highest % return games that I know proficiently, but the last couple of
months it's been kickin my ass. The reason? I haven't forgotten the
strategy, just not catching the cards, but I keep playing it as accurately
as I can hoping that I will start catching the cards. Yeah, I can give
myself a gold star in deuces because I know all the little nuances like
never holding a suited 8 with the T,J,Q unless my discard is an off suit K,
or like playing the K,J suited with a 9 straight penalty with a min. of 5,7
in 2 suits in the discards. So what. Once I hit the hold buttons and then
the draw,... let's all say it together, you gotta catch the cards. Let's
face it, video poker is just like what the old Kentucky thoroughbred horse
breeder said when he was asked how to become successful in the racing game.
He replied, well, first I take the best and I mate it with the best. I take
my foal and have it trained by the best. Now when I git down to puttin it in
the race, that's when I hafta to hope for the best. Are the casinos'
tampering? Well, if so they're not very good at it. My quad deuces results
were spot on and the royals almost double what they should have been. If
they were gaffed, why not bring back the Odyssey Four Play FPDW of just
6-1/2 years ago and make them available in $1, $2, and $5 denoms and just
funny up the chip. I think the Cogno answer to the tampering question would
be Highly Unlikely. Highly
Nudge
···
From: "morriemansell" <morriemansell@yahoo.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Are you being cheated on Full Pay Video Poker?
